Bitcoin has been hovering around $82,500 for more than three weeks, and Wintermute (report dated 20/10) sees the Fed meeting on 28/10 as the moment this range breaks. $BTC is at $83,100 on Kraken this morning (07:54 UTC).
1/ The range in numbers. Since 08/10, every daily Kraken close has stayed between $81,382 and $83,676. A gap of less than 3%. Wintermute notes low implied volatility (Deribit DVOL around 37).
2/ Wintermute’s levels. Above $87,000, a bullish reversal signal. A decisive loss of $82,500 would turn this support into resistance and put the low $70,000s back in play. The asymmetry is clear: about +5% to confirm the move, versus -15% to reach the downside target.
3/ The trigger. Rates staying unchanged on 28/10 remains the base case, but the market is pricing in roughly a 15–17% chance of a hike (Wintermute, via Bloomingbit). Context: CPI at 3.7% year over year (Wintermute), Brent above $110 (CoinDesk, 21/10).
4/ The patient camp. According to Hashdex (CoinDesk, 21/10), the bearish phase had lasted 359 days as of 30/09, compared with 361, 377, and 411 days for the previous three. Short-term holders now account for just 16% of supply, the lowest level since January 2023. But Hashdex wants to see $84,000 reclaimed before the Fed meeting.
5/ My take. Low volatility plus a dated event: a move is likely, but its direction isn’t. Bullish case: a cautious Fed, strong tech earnings, $84,000 reclaimed, then $87,000 tested. Bearish case: a hawkish tone, a December hike getting priced in, rising rates, and $82,500 giving way. Wintermute also prefers $BTC and $ETH over altcoins on a risk/reward basis.
By 28/10, which level do you think will go first: $84,000 reclaimed or $82,500 broken on a daily close?
#Bitcoin #FOMC
1/ The range in numbers. Since 08/10, every daily Kraken close has stayed between $81,382 and $83,676. A gap of less than 3%. Wintermute notes low implied volatility (Deribit DVOL around 37).
2/ Wintermute’s levels. Above $87,000, a bullish reversal signal. A decisive loss of $82,500 would turn this support into resistance and put the low $70,000s back in play. The asymmetry is clear: about +5% to confirm the move, versus -15% to reach the downside target.
3/ The trigger. Rates staying unchanged on 28/10 remains the base case, but the market is pricing in roughly a 15–17% chance of a hike (Wintermute, via Bloomingbit). Context: CPI at 3.7% year over year (Wintermute), Brent above $110 (CoinDesk, 21/10).
4/ The patient camp. According to Hashdex (CoinDesk, 21/10), the bearish phase had lasted 359 days as of 30/09, compared with 361, 377, and 411 days for the previous three. Short-term holders now account for just 16% of supply, the lowest level since January 2023. But Hashdex wants to see $84,000 reclaimed before the Fed meeting.
5/ My take. Low volatility plus a dated event: a move is likely, but its direction isn’t. Bullish case: a cautious Fed, strong tech earnings, $84,000 reclaimed, then $87,000 tested. Bearish case: a hawkish tone, a December hike getting priced in, rising rates, and $82,500 giving way. Wintermute also prefers $BTC and $ETH over altcoins on a risk/reward basis.
By 28/10, which level do you think will go first: $84,000 reclaimed or $82,500 broken on a daily close?
#Bitcoin #FOMC
