Six major events shaping the direction of the crypto market

Keep the core logic in mind:

Year-end market trends are no longer dictated by retail investor sentiment,

but by global macroeconomic forces.

1: Federal Reserve policy meeting (the key short-term market catalyst)

1. Current fundamentals: Rates were raised by 25 basis points in September, bringing them to 3.75%–4.00% and restarting the tightening cycle

2. Inflation: September CPI rebounded to 3.7%, with energy prices (gasoline up 9.1% for the month) driving inflation across the board and keeping price pressures elevated

3. Market expectations: A 25–50 basis point rate hike in December is possible, meaning tighter policy than expected

4. Market impact: Continued rate hikes → a stronger dollar and tighter liquidity → Bitcoin and other risk assets face volatility and downward pressure; once the bearish impact of rate hikes is priced in or the Fed signals easing → a likely rebound in Q4

II. U.S. election on November 3 (setting the regulatory tone for the next two years)

1. Key election battleground: All House seats and some Senate seats are up for election. Polls suggest Democrats are likely to control both chambers.

2. Regulatory action: Once in power, launch a targeted investigation into the crypto industry, crack down on conflicts of interest and insider trading, and strengthen cryptocurrency regulation.

3. Industry impact: Tighter regulation could weigh on the market in the short term, but establish crypto compliance rules over the medium to long term, determining how much regulatory breathing room the industry will have over the next two years.

III. South Korean stock market crash (global risk sentiment spillover)

1. Market snapshot: The KOSPI plunged 7.57% in a single day, triggering a circuit breaker. Seven consecutive days of losses brought it to a new recent low.

2. Causes of the downturn: High interest rates are weighing on the economy, while markets question whether AI industry valuations are in a bubble and whether earnings justify them.

3. Impact on crypto: Global panic has spilled over into crypto markets, but Bitcoin has bucked the trend and held up well, showing remarkable resilience near its lows.

IV. AI giant Anthropic’s blockbuster IPO (reshaping tech valuations)

1. Timing and scale: Set to go public before Thanksgiving in November, with a target valuation of $2 trillion—a landmark IPO.

2. Company fundamentals: Quarterly revenue of $16.8 billion, up 50% quarter over quarter and 20-fold year over year; the company is already profitable.

3. Potential risk: $500 billion in fixed computing-capacity obligations over ten years.

4. Market impact: AI valuations cool and financing costs rise → tech stocks pull back, dragging high-risk crypto assets down with them.

V. Earnings reports from five major tech giants (a global barometer for capital flows)

1. Reporting window: Apple, Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Amazon are set to report third-quarter results from late October to early November.

2. Market expectations: U.S. stocks’ third-quarter earnings are projected to surge 31% year over year, with AI driving 70% of the growth.

3. Market dynamics: Earnings beat expectations → risk appetite recovers and crypto trends upward amid volatility; earnings disappoint → global markets pull back and crypto weakens.

VI. Consensus fourth-quarter outlook from four major institutions (the final market verdict)

1. Citi: Raises its Bitcoin price target from $82,000 to $113,000; expects Ethereum to break above $3,000.

2. 21Shares: $81,000 is Bitcoin’s critical support level in the fourth quarter.

3. Coinbase: Bottom accumulation completed in the third quarter; recovery rally expected in the fourth quarter.

4. Polymarket: 55% probability that Bitcoin will hold above $90,000 by year-end

Macro factors are what truly drive the market.

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