BTC is back around 83,000. I’m watching to see whether it can hold above that level; if not, we’re still range-bound.

$BTC $82,745 (24h +0.78%)

$ETH $2,445 (24h +1.28%)

(Binance spot price, Taiwan time 10/21 11:55)

My AI picked up four things this morning. First up is its favorite: the short-liquidation chart.

1. This rebound is driven by shorts buying back. BTC climbed as high as 83,439 last night. In the 24 hours through noon today, about $55.9 million worth of BTC positions were liquidated across the market, including $46.4 million in shorts—roughly 83% of the total. Binance alone accounted for $34.4 million. The biggest liquidation was a $11.96 million BTC perpetual short on Binance, liquidated at 83,276. The funding rate is only +0.0046%, so longs aren't crowded yet.

2. Two new things from Binance today. Binance Alpha is launching Axis Robotics (AXIS) today, with an airdrop claimable using Alpha points. The official points threshold hasn’t been announced yet; recent rounds have been around 245–255 points. Also, four US stock USDT perpetual contracts—CEG, BAC, IBKR, and MDT—will be listed in stages starting at 17:00 today, with up to 20x leverage. Keep your leverage in check.

3. Pressure for a Fed rate hike is easing. Reuters cited CME FedWatch, which puts the odds of a hike at next week’s meeting at 17.2%, down from 57.6% a month ago. The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.121%, after dipping to 5.073% intraday. The US will auction $13 billion in 20-year Treasuries tonight. If demand is weak, yields could bounce again—and BTC will feel it.

4. Earnings season is underway. SpaceX’s third-quarter revenue came in above expectations at $14.58 billion, and its shares rose about 8% after hours. Netflix’s guidance was weaker than expected, sending shares down about 5.6% after hours. Meta and Tesla report after the US market closes tonight, and their results could directly affect risk appetite in tomorrow’s Asian session.

My take: After a round of short liquidations, there’s less fuel above us, so I’m not chasing the move between 83,000 and 83,500. If we hold above 83,500, then I’ll look toward 85,000. If 81,200 holds on a retest, I’ll keep treating this as a range. If we break below 80,000, I’ll reduce my position first. My AI is excited, but I told it to calm down—the earnings haven’t come out yet.

Meta and Tesla report tonight. Do you think BTC will rise along with them, or dip first? Let me know in the comments.