The question we said we'd check yesterday now has an answer: IBIT still had net inflows on 10/20, but they were down to just $29.9 million—about 95% less than the $665 million the day before.
For the 10/20 U.S. trading day (21:30–10/21 04:00 UTC+8 / 13:30–20:00 UTC), spot BTC ETFs recorded a combined +$23.2 million:
・IBIT +$29.9 million, FBTC +$3.6 million
・BITB −$10.3 million, GBTC flat
October's cumulative outflows narrowed further, from −$88 million to about −$64.8 million.
ETH hasn't stopped bleeding; outflows have just eased: a combined −$26.1 million (ETHA −$33 million). Outflows have continued for 5 straight days, and 13 of October's 14 trading days have been negative, for cumulative outflows of about −$1.085 billion.
Prices, on the other hand, did move this time: BTCUSDT's 10/20 daily candle (UTC) closed at 83,028, up about 1.3% from 81,938; ETH closed at 2,449, up about 1.7%.
My take (inference): The 10/19 inflow looks more like a one-off, large allocation than sustained buying. ETFs contributed only a small amount to the gains over these past two days, so there's no clear sign yet that ETF flows are driving the move. To call it an “institutional return,” we'd need to see IBIT maintain billion-level inflows for several days, with more than one fund buying.
Two things to watch next:
1. Whether IBIT can return to billion-level inflows over the next few days (Farside's figures may also be revised)
2. Whether ETH ETF outflows break their streak this week
$BTC $ETH｜Source: Farside (10/20 data complete; retrieved 10/21 at 11:47 UTC+8), Binance spot daily candles｜Not investment advice
For the 10/20 U.S. trading day (21:30–10/21 04:00 UTC+8 / 13:30–20:00 UTC), spot BTC ETFs recorded a combined +$23.2 million:
・IBIT +$29.9 million, FBTC +$3.6 million
・BITB −$10.3 million, GBTC flat
October's cumulative outflows narrowed further, from −$88 million to about −$64.8 million.
ETH hasn't stopped bleeding; outflows have just eased: a combined −$26.1 million (ETHA −$33 million). Outflows have continued for 5 straight days, and 13 of October's 14 trading days have been negative, for cumulative outflows of about −$1.085 billion.
Prices, on the other hand, did move this time: BTCUSDT's 10/20 daily candle (UTC) closed at 83,028, up about 1.3% from 81,938; ETH closed at 2,449, up about 1.7%.
My take (inference): The 10/19 inflow looks more like a one-off, large allocation than sustained buying. ETFs contributed only a small amount to the gains over these past two days, so there's no clear sign yet that ETF flows are driving the move. To call it an “institutional return,” we'd need to see IBIT maintain billion-level inflows for several days, with more than one fund buying.
Two things to watch next:
1. Whether IBIT can return to billion-level inflows over the next few days (Farside's figures may also be revised)
2. Whether ETH ETF outflows break their streak this week
$BTC $ETH｜Source: Farside (10/20 data complete; retrieved 10/21 at 11:47 UTC+8), Binance spot daily candles｜Not investment advice