$BTC has been stuck in the $80,000–$84,000 range for two weeks, and this directly affects whether your position is in profit or loss.

At its core, two forces are offsetting each other: ETFs have seen net outflows for two consecutive weeks, while exchange reserves continue to decline. There’s a wide split in market expectations ahead of the Fed’s rate decision: CME pricing puts the chance of an October rate hike at just 16%, while economists say it’s close to a coin toss. No one dares to place a bet too early.

Bearish confirmation would require a break below $79,800, weekly ETF outflows exceeding $500 million, and net inflows to exchanges. For a bullish signal, we’d need a daily close above $84,200 and cumulative ETF net inflows of over $500 million across three days.

$80,000 has served as solid support several times over the past month, so the odds of a false breakout aren’t low. What should you do now? Keep an eye on these two confirmation scenarios, don’t rush to bet on a direction, and sign up for the Alpha DNA Trading Tournament to get some practice in—the million-dollar prize pool is waiting.

How much longer can this volatility last? Comment 1 if you think it’ll dip below $80,000 before the Fed’s rate decision, or 2 if you think it’ll hold steady while we wait for news.

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