#股票财报季
Everyone’s been talking about earnings season these past few days. But this quarter, the real question isn’t how much they earned—it’s one thing: Are they still spending money on AI?
Meta and Tesla report after the U.S. market closes tonight (tomorrow morning Beijing time). Microsoft, Google, and Amazon follow next week.
The most important one is Meta. Its AI spending budget for this year is $130 billion to $145 billion, mostly for building data centers and buying chips. Its profit was actually pretty good last quarter, but its stock still fell 8% after earnings came out. There was one reason: spending was too aggressive, and cash flow couldn’t keep up.
That’s the biggest dilemma this earnings season.
If the big tech companies keep spending aggressively, the companies selling chips and computing power will benefit—but the big tech companies themselves will get criticized for “burning cash.”
If the big tech companies start pulling back, their cash flow will look better, but chip and computing-power stocks—which just crashed the week before last—could crash again. Companies like CoreWeave, saddled with tens of billions of dollars in debt, will have an even harder time.
Neither outcome looks great, so volatility this quarter is likely to be significant.
And what does this have to do with crypto? A lot.
Bitcoin has mostly followed the Nasdaq this month. When the Nasdaq fell 5.5% in a week, Bitcoin also got repeatedly knocked down around $80K. Some mining companies have shifted to renting out computing power to AI companies over the past two years, too. The day mining stocks fell 13%, they were dragged down by the AI sector’s crash. If the big tech companies cut their AI budgets, those companies will be among the first to take a hit.
The timing makes things even trickier. Microsoft and Google report next week, right when the Fed meets, with its decision due on the 28th. Earnings and interest rates—two potential flashpoints—are landing in the same week.
My plan: I’m not making any moves before Meta’s numbers come out tonight. The key thing I’ll be watching is whether it lowers its AI budget. If it doesn’t, the market can breathe a little easier; if it cuts spending, tech stocks and Bitcoin will both be at risk next week. $80K is still the level I’m watching.
#股票财报季 $BTC
Everyone’s been talking about earnings season these past few days. But this quarter, the real question isn’t how much they earned—it’s one thing: Are they still spending money on AI?
Meta and Tesla report after the U.S. market closes tonight (tomorrow morning Beijing time). Microsoft, Google, and Amazon follow next week.
The most important one is Meta. Its AI spending budget for this year is $130 billion to $145 billion, mostly for building data centers and buying chips. Its profit was actually pretty good last quarter, but its stock still fell 8% after earnings came out. There was one reason: spending was too aggressive, and cash flow couldn’t keep up.
That’s the biggest dilemma this earnings season.
If the big tech companies keep spending aggressively, the companies selling chips and computing power will benefit—but the big tech companies themselves will get criticized for “burning cash.”
If the big tech companies start pulling back, their cash flow will look better, but chip and computing-power stocks—which just crashed the week before last—could crash again. Companies like CoreWeave, saddled with tens of billions of dollars in debt, will have an even harder time.
Neither outcome looks great, so volatility this quarter is likely to be significant.
And what does this have to do with crypto? A lot.
Bitcoin has mostly followed the Nasdaq this month. When the Nasdaq fell 5.5% in a week, Bitcoin also got repeatedly knocked down around $80K. Some mining companies have shifted to renting out computing power to AI companies over the past two years, too. The day mining stocks fell 13%, they were dragged down by the AI sector’s crash. If the big tech companies cut their AI budgets, those companies will be among the first to take a hit.
The timing makes things even trickier. Microsoft and Google report next week, right when the Fed meets, with its decision due on the 28th. Earnings and interest rates—two potential flashpoints—are landing in the same week.
My plan: I’m not making any moves before Meta’s numbers come out tonight. The key thing I’ll be watching is whether it lowers its AI budget. If it doesn’t, the market can breathe a little easier; if it cuts spending, tech stocks and Bitcoin will both be at risk next week. $80K is still the level I’m watching.
#股票财报季 $BTC