ETF money came back on Monday, but I’m still not chasing this move
What I saw:
U.S. spot BTC ETFs had about $527 million in net inflows on Monday, their biggest day since September 22
BlackRock’s IBIT alone took in about $665 million in one day, its largest inflow since October 2025; FBTC and GBTC, by contrast, continued to see outflows. The money is basically only going into IBIT
Spot ETH ETFs saw another $103 million in net outflows the same day. October’s total outflows are now about $955 million, already the biggest monthly outflow this year
My take:
This isn’t institutions turning bullish across the board—it’s one fund, IBIT, leading the charge, while sentiment has yet to recover
BTC rebounded about 2% and climbed above $82,000, but it’s stuck below the resistance zone around $83,000. It’s still 34% off its high. This is a rebound, not a reversal
On-chain data still looks messy: $2 billion in large deposits to exchanges versus just $1.6 billion in withdrawals. Selling pressure hasn’t run its course
What I’m doing:
Not chasing. I’ll wait for BTC to hold above $83,000, then see whether bulls can reclaim the 20-day moving average (around $83,300). If the picture isn’t clear, I’ll wait until the Fed’s October 28 rate decision
Invalidation:
If BTC drops below $81,000, I’ll treat this rebound as if it never happened and expect more range-bound trading
Pick one:
Do you think Monday’s $527 million marks the start of a reversal, or is it a dead-cat bounce?
$BTC $ETH
#Bitcoin #ETF
What I saw:
U.S. spot BTC ETFs had about $527 million in net inflows on Monday, their biggest day since September 22
BlackRock’s IBIT alone took in about $665 million in one day, its largest inflow since October 2025; FBTC and GBTC, by contrast, continued to see outflows. The money is basically only going into IBIT
Spot ETH ETFs saw another $103 million in net outflows the same day. October’s total outflows are now about $955 million, already the biggest monthly outflow this year
My take:
This isn’t institutions turning bullish across the board—it’s one fund, IBIT, leading the charge, while sentiment has yet to recover
BTC rebounded about 2% and climbed above $82,000, but it’s stuck below the resistance zone around $83,000. It’s still 34% off its high. This is a rebound, not a reversal
On-chain data still looks messy: $2 billion in large deposits to exchanges versus just $1.6 billion in withdrawals. Selling pressure hasn’t run its course
What I’m doing:
Not chasing. I’ll wait for BTC to hold above $83,000, then see whether bulls can reclaim the 20-day moving average (around $83,300). If the picture isn’t clear, I’ll wait until the Fed’s October 28 rate decision
Invalidation:
If BTC drops below $81,000, I’ll treat this rebound as if it never happened and expect more range-bound trading
Pick one:
Do you think Monday’s $527 million marks the start of a reversal, or is it a dead-cat bounce?
$BTC $ETH
#Bitcoin #ETF