BTC at $83,190, just $200 away from the short stop-loss wall. At this level, I’m choosing to sit tight.
Brahma ran data all night. The bias score is +9, leaning bullish, but the system still said WAIT. Why? There’s one signal I can’t ignore: daily RSI at 80.9, in historically overbought territory, and bearish divergence has already appeared between the 1H and 4H charts—the 1H price is rising, but the 4H RSI is only 54. Structurally, momentum is already fading.
That’s not why I’m bearish on BTC. It’s why I’m not chasing a long at this level.
Looking up, $83,385 is a dense cluster of short stop-losses, with a liquidation pool right there. Big players have an incentive to push the price up and wipe out shorts. That’s the most likely scenario this morning. But BTC’s FVG target above is $83,276, and there’s also a decent chance price will reverse lower after sweeping the liquidations. If you buy just below the liquidation wall, your stop would need to be at $81,314 to be effective. With 1H ATR at $491, the minimum stop at 1.5x ATR is $737. That much downside risk for 200 points of upside? Not worth it.
ETH’s signals are even more interesting. Retail LSR is 2.78, meaning nearly three times as many retail traders are long as short. Meanwhile, taker buying pressure has been climbing steadily at 1.403, suggesting someone is pushing the price up. I’ve seen this combination many times: first, push price up to trigger the short stops at $2,434, then turn around and take out retail traders who chased longs too aggressively. The liquidation level above ETH is $2,434, just -0.35% from the current price of $2,456—right at its feet.
My current view: BTC may make a run higher this morning to sweep liquidations, targeting the $83,385–$83,420 area. But this isn’t the time to chase longs. Wait for the move to finish, then see if buyers step in on the pullback. If BTC returns to $81,528 (the 1H FVG midpoint) and buyers are still there, that’s when the bullish structure is truly confirmed.
No confirmation, no entry. It’s a matter of discipline. There’s always another train coming; missing this one isn’t a loss. Getting on the wrong train is.
Are you waiting for the liquidation sweep to finish before making a move today, or have you already chased the price? Let’s talk in the comments.
Follow me for livestreams and SMC lessons every night at 21:00.
🌿 Zhao (Unannounced) | Not financial advice
Brahma ran data all night. The bias score is +9, leaning bullish, but the system still said WAIT. Why? There’s one signal I can’t ignore: daily RSI at 80.9, in historically overbought territory, and bearish divergence has already appeared between the 1H and 4H charts—the 1H price is rising, but the 4H RSI is only 54. Structurally, momentum is already fading.
That’s not why I’m bearish on BTC. It’s why I’m not chasing a long at this level.
Looking up, $83,385 is a dense cluster of short stop-losses, with a liquidation pool right there. Big players have an incentive to push the price up and wipe out shorts. That’s the most likely scenario this morning. But BTC’s FVG target above is $83,276, and there’s also a decent chance price will reverse lower after sweeping the liquidations. If you buy just below the liquidation wall, your stop would need to be at $81,314 to be effective. With 1H ATR at $491, the minimum stop at 1.5x ATR is $737. That much downside risk for 200 points of upside? Not worth it.
ETH’s signals are even more interesting. Retail LSR is 2.78, meaning nearly three times as many retail traders are long as short. Meanwhile, taker buying pressure has been climbing steadily at 1.403, suggesting someone is pushing the price up. I’ve seen this combination many times: first, push price up to trigger the short stops at $2,434, then turn around and take out retail traders who chased longs too aggressively. The liquidation level above ETH is $2,434, just -0.35% from the current price of $2,456—right at its feet.
My current view: BTC may make a run higher this morning to sweep liquidations, targeting the $83,385–$83,420 area. But this isn’t the time to chase longs. Wait for the move to finish, then see if buyers step in on the pullback. If BTC returns to $81,528 (the 1H FVG midpoint) and buyers are still there, that’s when the bullish structure is truly confirmed.
No confirmation, no entry. It’s a matter of discipline. There’s always another train coming; missing this one isn’t a loss. Getting on the wrong train is.
Are you waiting for the liquidation sweep to finish before making a move today, or have you already chased the price? Let’s talk in the comments.
Follow me for livestreams and SMC lessons every night at 21:00.
🌿 Zhao (Unannounced) | Not financial advice