JPMorgan adds Bitcoin to its long-term forecasts: 10% a year, but not in its portfolios
In its 31st annual report on long-term market assumptions, published on October 19, JPMorgan Asset Management includes Bitcoin. On the morning of October 20, the news spread widely, notably shared by Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise (crypto.news).
The figures
→ Bitcoin’s compound annual return over 10 to 15 years: 10%, ahead of U.S. stocks and gold, according to JPMorgan
→ Average arithmetic annual return: 20.9%, with assumed annualized volatility of 55%
→ Traditional portfolio: around 7% a year
The point that is often overlooked: JPMorgan does not include Bitcoin in its main allocation models and still considers it too volatile to recommend to strategic investors. This is a research assumption, not portfolio advice.
Why two figures: an average return of 20.9% with 55% volatility results in a much lower compound return—10% in this case. The difference is mainly due to volatility. This is my explanation, not a detail published by JPMorgan.
The context: the bank’s CEO, Jamie Dimon, has long been skeptical of Bitcoin, even though the bank has allowed its clients to buy it since May 2025 (CCN).
My analysis: these assumptions lend credibility to Bitcoin as an asset class, without saying that people should hold it. This is an assumption, not a forecast.
This is not investment advice.
Is an expected return of 10% a year with 55% volatility enough to justify allocating to Bitcoin?
#JPMorganPredictsBitcoinBestPerformingAssetOverNextDecade
In its 31st annual report on long-term market assumptions, published on October 19, JPMorgan Asset Management includes Bitcoin. On the morning of October 20, the news spread widely, notably shared by Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise (crypto.news).
The figures
→ Bitcoin’s compound annual return over 10 to 15 years: 10%, ahead of U.S. stocks and gold, according to JPMorgan
→ Average arithmetic annual return: 20.9%, with assumed annualized volatility of 55%
→ Traditional portfolio: around 7% a year
The point that is often overlooked: JPMorgan does not include Bitcoin in its main allocation models and still considers it too volatile to recommend to strategic investors. This is a research assumption, not portfolio advice.
Why two figures: an average return of 20.9% with 55% volatility results in a much lower compound return—10% in this case. The difference is mainly due to volatility. This is my explanation, not a detail published by JPMorgan.
The context: the bank’s CEO, Jamie Dimon, has long been skeptical of Bitcoin, even though the bank has allowed its clients to buy it since May 2025 (CCN).
My analysis: these assumptions lend credibility to Bitcoin as an asset class, without saying that people should hold it. This is an assumption, not a forecast.
This is not investment advice.
Is an expected return of 10% a year with 55% volatility enough to justify allocating to Bitcoin?
#JPMorganPredictsBitcoinBestPerformingAssetOverNextDecade