Everyone is talking about Bitcoin leading the pack over the next decade, but what’s being overlooked is the volatility the same report assigns to it.
👉 55% 那一栏怎么落到仓位上，群里接着算，点进来
JPMorgan included Bitcoin in its long-term capital market assumptions, forecasting that it will deliver the highest returns over the next decade. The report puts Bitcoin’s expected volatility at 55%, compared with 17.2% for gold. For the same position, volatility is 3.2 times higher, so the drawdowns you need to withstand are on a completely different scale. It’s like getting an insurance quote for a sports car: the more horsepower, the higher the premium. An insurance quote is not a performance chart. The report itself comes with a long list of caveats, and Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan also believes the volatility assumption is too high and the return assumption too low—the debate is about how to fill in those two numbers, not the words “highest returns.”
The first thing to adjust from a technical perspective is the position size.
If the long-term assumptions bring its volatility down to gold’s level, this statement no longer applies.
#摩根大通预测比特币十年领跑
👉 55% 那一栏怎么落到仓位上，群里接着算，点进来
JPMorgan included Bitcoin in its long-term capital market assumptions, forecasting that it will deliver the highest returns over the next decade. The report puts Bitcoin’s expected volatility at 55%, compared with 17.2% for gold. For the same position, volatility is 3.2 times higher, so the drawdowns you need to withstand are on a completely different scale. It’s like getting an insurance quote for a sports car: the more horsepower, the higher the premium. An insurance quote is not a performance chart. The report itself comes with a long list of caveats, and Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan also believes the volatility assumption is too high and the return assumption too low—the debate is about how to fill in those two numbers, not the words “highest returns.”
The first thing to adjust from a technical perspective is the position size.
If the long-term assumptions bring its volatility down to gold’s level, this statement no longer applies.
#摩根大通预测比特币十年领跑