The whole internet is laughing at BMNR’s $6.4 billion unrealized loss, and it just bought another 12,535 ETH
Let’s start with the data, conclusion first: I’m not chasing this 6% green candle.
BitMine announced on October 19 that it bought another 12,535 ETH last week, bringing its total holdings to 6,041,481 ETH.
ETH’s total supply is 122.1 million. BitMine now holds 4.9% of it, just 63,500 ETH short of its 5% target, which is 99% complete.
Of that, 5.06 million ETH is staked and earning yield—basically, it’s taking a beating while collecting rent.
The stock price is another story: its 52-week high was $161, and now it’s at $21.6, down 92%.
CryptoQuant estimates that its ETH holdings are sitting on an unrealized loss of about $6.4 billion.
Binance stock token BMNRUSDT is up 5.96% over 24 hours, at 22.95, with a trading volume of 22.96 million USDT. The rebound candle came with a surge in volume.
The bull case.
Tom Lee said on October 20 that the current drop is “an attractive risk-reward opportunity.” The buying plan hasn’t paused for a single week since June 30, 2025.
The average analyst price target is $48.8, more than double the current price. The company says it aims to outperform the entire crypto bull-market cycle.
The bear case.
The $6.4 billion unrealized loss is real. ETH is now at 2,400, still below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, and the treasury is essentially a leveraged long position in ETH.
That 92% drop has buried retail investors who chased the highs and funds facing redemptions. Even analysts only dare to rate it Hold; nobody is calling it a Buy.
My view.
I lean a little more toward the bears. The ETH buying is certainly decisive, but decisiveness doesn’t mean it’s right. The 5% target feels more like an act of faith.
The most important data point isn’t how many coins it bought, but whether ETH can get back above 2,500.
If the coin price doesn’t rise, the treasury strategy is just spinning its wheels. Buying more only spreads the unrealized loss even wider.
I see this 6% green candle as an oversold bounce, not a reversal signal.
Scenarios.
If it holds above $24—the 50-day moving average—it opens the door to a rebound toward 28–30. That would be the point where we could call it short covering.
A drop below $20.32—the 200-day moving average—would mean the dip buyers at $21 have capitulated and exited. The next stop would be 18.
If ETH falls below 2,300, the treasury’s unrealized loss will keep growing, and the stock will most likely take another leg down.
What I’m doing.
I’m not chasing this 6% green candle. I’m waiting for one of two signals: ETH moving above 2,500, or BMNR closing and holding above 24.
Until one of those happens, I’ll just watch from the sidelines. The invalidation condition is simple: if it falls below 20.32, the thesis in this post is invalidated.
Does holding above $24 kick off a rebound, or will a break below $20.32 mean it keeps searching for a bottom? I’m betting on the latter. What about you?
$BMNR $ETH $BTC
#以太坊 #美股
Let’s start with the data, conclusion first: I’m not chasing this 6% green candle.
BitMine announced on October 19 that it bought another 12,535 ETH last week, bringing its total holdings to 6,041,481 ETH.
ETH’s total supply is 122.1 million. BitMine now holds 4.9% of it, just 63,500 ETH short of its 5% target, which is 99% complete.
Of that, 5.06 million ETH is staked and earning yield—basically, it’s taking a beating while collecting rent.
The stock price is another story: its 52-week high was $161, and now it’s at $21.6, down 92%.
CryptoQuant estimates that its ETH holdings are sitting on an unrealized loss of about $6.4 billion.
Binance stock token BMNRUSDT is up 5.96% over 24 hours, at 22.95, with a trading volume of 22.96 million USDT. The rebound candle came with a surge in volume.
The bull case.
Tom Lee said on October 20 that the current drop is “an attractive risk-reward opportunity.” The buying plan hasn’t paused for a single week since June 30, 2025.
The average analyst price target is $48.8, more than double the current price. The company says it aims to outperform the entire crypto bull-market cycle.
The bear case.
The $6.4 billion unrealized loss is real. ETH is now at 2,400, still below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, and the treasury is essentially a leveraged long position in ETH.
That 92% drop has buried retail investors who chased the highs and funds facing redemptions. Even analysts only dare to rate it Hold; nobody is calling it a Buy.
My view.
I lean a little more toward the bears. The ETH buying is certainly decisive, but decisiveness doesn’t mean it’s right. The 5% target feels more like an act of faith.
The most important data point isn’t how many coins it bought, but whether ETH can get back above 2,500.
If the coin price doesn’t rise, the treasury strategy is just spinning its wheels. Buying more only spreads the unrealized loss even wider.
I see this 6% green candle as an oversold bounce, not a reversal signal.
Scenarios.
If it holds above $24—the 50-day moving average—it opens the door to a rebound toward 28–30. That would be the point where we could call it short covering.
A drop below $20.32—the 200-day moving average—would mean the dip buyers at $21 have capitulated and exited. The next stop would be 18.
If ETH falls below 2,300, the treasury’s unrealized loss will keep growing, and the stock will most likely take another leg down.
What I’m doing.
I’m not chasing this 6% green candle. I’m waiting for one of two signals: ETH moving above 2,500, or BMNR closing and holding above 24.
Until one of those happens, I’ll just watch from the sidelines. The invalidation condition is simple: if it falls below 20.32, the thesis in this post is invalidated.
Does holding above $24 kick off a rebound, or will a break below $20.32 mean it keeps searching for a bottom? I’m betting on the latter. What about you?
$BMNR $ETH $BTC
#以太坊 #美股