WTI crude briefly topped $100 a barrel on October 20, then was quoted at $96.72 a barrel that evening. CL-related crude oil contracts are facing rapidly shifting geopolitical news, not a confirmed one-sided supply shock.
Brent crude briefly fell about 3% that day after reports that Qatar and Pakistan had proposed a new plan. Later, claims emerged that an oil tanker carrying more than 2 million barrels of crude had struck a mine and exploded. But an earlier claim that another tanker had struck a mine was denied by the U.S., so the reports should not be treated as confirmation or refutation of the same incident.
Much of this information is secondhand, and the details of the agreement and the condition of the tanker have yet to be independently verified. The next things to watch are official confirmation from the parties involved and whether shipping is actually disrupted. If shipping is not interrupted for an extended period, can CL-related contracts sustain their supply-risk premium?
Brent crude briefly fell about 3% that day after reports that Qatar and Pakistan had proposed a new plan. Later, claims emerged that an oil tanker carrying more than 2 million barrels of crude had struck a mine and exploded. But an earlier claim that another tanker had struck a mine was denied by the U.S., so the reports should not be treated as confirmation or refutation of the same incident.
Much of this information is secondhand, and the details of the agreement and the condition of the tanker have yet to be independently verified. The next things to watch are official confirmation from the parties involved and whether shipping is actually disrupted. If shipping is not interrupted for an extended period, can CL-related contracts sustain their supply-risk premium?