IBIT attracted $665 million in a single day, while BTC didn’t even rise 1%
On October 20, Switzerland’s FINMA approved the country’s first spot Bitcoin ETF aimed at retail investors, and made an exception by waiving the fund diversification requirements.
That same day, BlackRock filed with the SEC for a buffered Bitcoin ETF (PBIT), which uses IBIT options to hedge against declines while giving up some of the upside—clearly designed for institutions afraid of losses.
That same day, IBIT saw net inflows of $665 million.
JPMorgan also mentioned Bitcoin in its long-term capital markets forecasts for the first time: over the next decade, BTC will outperform U.S. stocks and gold.
But BTC’s report card was: +0.57% over 24 hours, a high of 83,420, a low of 81,146, and a current price of 82,467. It went nowhere.
The futures funding rate was 0.0083%. Longs weren’t crowded, shorts weren’t squeezed, and leverage sentiment was unusually subdued.
My take: when bullish news piles up and the price doesn’t budge, there are only two explanations: buyers have already run out of steam, or sellers are using the good news to offload into the rally.
Either way, it’s not the fairy tale of “the good news hasn’t had time to take effect.” It shouldn’t take 24 hours for it to have any impact.
My stance hasn’t changed: watch, don’t chase. Chasing good news at 82,467 puts your own money at risk.
What I’m doing: watching 83,420 above; only a sustained hold above 83,500 would bring momentum. Below, I’m watching 81,146; a break below 81,100 would mean the good news is spent and there are truly no buyers stepping in.
If it holds, I won’t chase higher. If it breaks down, I won’t buy the dip. I’ll let those who move first show the way.
Would you go long after a sustained hold above 83,500, or admit defeat if it breaks below 81,100? I’m going with the latter. What about you?
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#比特币 #ETF
On October 20, Switzerland’s FINMA approved the country’s first spot Bitcoin ETF aimed at retail investors, and made an exception by waiving the fund diversification requirements.
That same day, BlackRock filed with the SEC for a buffered Bitcoin ETF (PBIT), which uses IBIT options to hedge against declines while giving up some of the upside—clearly designed for institutions afraid of losses.
That same day, IBIT saw net inflows of $665 million.
JPMorgan also mentioned Bitcoin in its long-term capital markets forecasts for the first time: over the next decade, BTC will outperform U.S. stocks and gold.
But BTC’s report card was: +0.57% over 24 hours, a high of 83,420, a low of 81,146, and a current price of 82,467. It went nowhere.
The futures funding rate was 0.0083%. Longs weren’t crowded, shorts weren’t squeezed, and leverage sentiment was unusually subdued.
My take: when bullish news piles up and the price doesn’t budge, there are only two explanations: buyers have already run out of steam, or sellers are using the good news to offload into the rally.
Either way, it’s not the fairy tale of “the good news hasn’t had time to take effect.” It shouldn’t take 24 hours for it to have any impact.
My stance hasn’t changed: watch, don’t chase. Chasing good news at 82,467 puts your own money at risk.
What I’m doing: watching 83,420 above; only a sustained hold above 83,500 would bring momentum. Below, I’m watching 81,146; a break below 81,100 would mean the good news is spent and there are truly no buyers stepping in.
If it holds, I won’t chase higher. If it breaks down, I won’t buy the dip. I’ll let those who move first show the way.
Would you go long after a sustained hold above 83,500, or admit defeat if it breaks below 81,100? I’m going with the latter. What about you?
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#比特币 #ETF