SOL analysis — Solana today, October 20:

Current price:

$104–$105.65, down 1% over 24 hours but up 1.3% from the open. Volume is up 8% to $2.35 billion, meaning there is active selling, not a lack of liquidity.

Technical — the short-term picture is weak:

The price is below all the key moving averages:

SMA20: $111.01

SMA50: $109.46

EMA12: $106.86

Except for the SMA7 at $104.49, which it is barely holding above

RSI: 40.25, near oversold

Stochastic %K 20.37 and %D 16.30 are deep in oversold territory

MACD is flat: the line and signal are both at -2.1663, and the histogram is 0.0000, meaning the decline has stalled, but there’s no positive reversal yet 39cb

Bollinger %B is 0.25, meaning the price is in the lower quarter, under selling pressure.

But the SMA200 is still far below at $87.87, meaning the long-term trend remains bullish.

Fundamentals — why is it weak?

ETF: 11 consecutive days of outflows. Yesterday alone, $6.72 million flowed out, bringing the total to around $57 million since October 5. This is the opposite of BTC, which has seen inflows.

SkyAI sold all of its SOL and then did a $201 million buyback, dealing a blow to sentiment.

But there’s big news tomorrow: the Alpenglow upgrade will be activated tomorrow, Wednesday, October 21, at 14:50 UTC. It changes the TowerBFT consensus mechanism. Finality will drop from 12.8 seconds to just 150 milliseconds, and 56% of voting transactions will move offchain. This is Solana’s biggest event of the year. 41f44c18

Levels:

Critical psychological support: $100 — if it breaks on a 4-hour close, the target is $90

First resistance: $105 / today’s $106.22

Strong resistance: $110 — this is the SMA and the target for all of October. Above that: $120

Lower Bollinger support: $97.83 961f

Bottom line:

SOL has been stuck between $100 and $110 throughout October. The short-term outlook is weak and price is below the moving averages, but oversold conditions plus tomorrow’s Alpenglow event could trigger a technical bounce. If you want to enter, watch $100 as a stop, and a break above $106.86 (EMA12) would be the first sign of strength.