Tuesday recap: ETFs attracted $527 million, but prices didn’t rise—smart money and the options market are telling two different stories 📊
The takeaway: today was a “spot buying, options fearing” kind of day.
1️⃣ Prices and sentiment
🔸 BTC around $83,249, up 1.3% in 24h (CoinGecko); ETH around $2,471, up 2.6%; SOL around $107.7, up 3.1%; BNB around $738.98, up 1.7%
🔸 Fear & Greed Index: 55 (Greed)
🔸 CoinDesk reported during the session that BTC briefly fell to around $81,400 as South Korea’s KOSPI dropped nearly 4%, the sell-off in AI stocks spread, and oil prices continued to rise
2️⃣ ETFs: money is quietly flowing in
🔸 U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $526.6 million in net inflows on Monday, their largest single-day total in nearly a month
🔸 BlackRock’s IBIT accounted for $665.2 million in inflows; FBTC saw $83.6 million in outflows, and GBTC saw $54.9 million in outflows
🔸 Ethereum ETFs saw $103.3 million in outflows, marking a fourth consecutive trading day of net outflows
👉 Takeaway: Institutions are buying the dip in BTC, while ETH remains overlooked—a clear divergence in investor preferences
3️⃣ Options market: Some are buying protection
Deribit data (see chart): Implied volatility for 25-delta puts is higher across the board than for calls. The premium is +3.1 points for the 10/21 expiry, widening to +4.0 points for the 11/6 expiry. The longer the expiry, the more the market is willing to pay for downside protection.
👉 Takeaway: Spot prices are rising, while options markets are hedging. This suggests traders aren’t questioning support around $80,000, but are concerned that the stock market—especially the AI sector—could transmit risk to crypto.
4️⃣ Other key developments today
🔸 JPMorgan has issued its first estimate for BTC, projecting an annualized return of around 10% over the next decade
🔸 France’s parliament voted to impose a 31% capital gains tax on stablecoin transactions—a regulatory shift worth watching
🔸 The CFTC pushed back against CME’s legal position in the perpetual contract case
5️⃣ What to watch tomorrow
✅ The $80,000 level is the dividing line between bulls and bears. If it holds, BTC could retest $83,000; if it breaks, watch for $79,000
✅ The U.S. tech stock market and the KOSPI’s performance at the open are external factors for BTC in the short term
✅ Whether daily ETF inflows continue or prove to be a one-off
What do you think: will BTC hit $85,000 first tomorrow, or pull back to retest $80,000? Share your take in the comments 👇
$BTC $ETH
For personal opinions only; this does not constitute investment advice.