BTC fell back from 83,158 to 81,500. The number of retail traders holding long positions dropped yesterday, then rose again today.
$BTC Binance Futures:
· Yesterday, Beijing time 11:25: 82,542; overall long/short ratio 1.60; top traders' long/short position ratio 1.80
· Today, Beijing time 20:25: 81,513; overall long/short ratio 1.81; top traders' long/short position ratio 1.78
· 24-hour change: -1.2%; range: 81,146–82,744
· Open interest: $7.78 billion, up about 1% in 24 hours (from $7.70 billion)
· Funding rate: +0.003%
ETH is similar: the ratio fell to 2.79 yesterday afternoon, then rebounded to 3.17 today, with price at 2,391.
My take: Yesterday, retail traders reduced their positions while large traders added to theirs, and the price surged to 83,158. Today, as the price moved lower, retail traders were the ones buying in, while large traders didn't follow. The higher the long/short ratio climbs, the more concentrated long liquidations become below.
Two scenarios:
Scenario 1: BTC holds 80,622 (the 10/18 low) and gets back above 82,900—this is just a pullback after the breakout.
Scenario 2: BTC breaks below 80,622 and retests 79,732 (the low on the night of the PPI release).
U.S. stocks open tonight. Which way do you think BTC will move first?
$BTC Binance Futures:
· Yesterday, Beijing time 11:25: 82,542; overall long/short ratio 1.60; top traders' long/short position ratio 1.80
· Today, Beijing time 20:25: 81,513; overall long/short ratio 1.81; top traders' long/short position ratio 1.78
· 24-hour change: -1.2%; range: 81,146–82,744
· Open interest: $7.78 billion, up about 1% in 24 hours (from $7.70 billion)
· Funding rate: +0.003%
ETH is similar: the ratio fell to 2.79 yesterday afternoon, then rebounded to 3.17 today, with price at 2,391.
My take: Yesterday, retail traders reduced their positions while large traders added to theirs, and the price surged to 83,158. Today, as the price moved lower, retail traders were the ones buying in, while large traders didn't follow. The higher the long/short ratio climbs, the more concentrated long liquidations become below.
Two scenarios:
Scenario 1: BTC holds 80,622 (the 10/18 low) and gets back above 82,900—this is just a pullback after the breakout.
Scenario 2: BTC breaks below 80,622 and retests 79,732 (the low on the night of the PPI release).
U.S. stocks open tonight. Which way do you think BTC will move first?