I’m accustomed to studying long cycles, the macro picture, and major trends. I’m good at spotting high-conviction market moves, and over the long term, I’ve tended to dismiss minor risks and small fluctuations.
Because my track record has been so strong and my understanding so deep, I’ve always felt that a little volatility was nothing to worry about—that minor divergences could correct themselves and small unrealized losses could be recovered.
But devastating drawdowns are never caused by a single major crash. They build up through countless instances of dismissing small risks and letting small mistakes accumulate.
The more skilled someone is, the more likely they are to overlook deadly traps in the details because of their confidence.