$JCT doubled in an afternoon. I looked around, but couldn't find any news that would justify a move like that. The project team only released a minor update to its rendering service today. At times like this, the price action is more reliable than the story.
Gate perpetuals are currently around 0.00392, up about 109% over 24 hours, with a low of 0.001859 and a high of 0.00409. At 10 a.m. it was still at 0.00198. It broke 0.002 at 11 and started climbing, barely looking back.
How did the volume build? From the early hours through the morning, hourly trading volume was just a few hundred to a little over 8,000 U—dead as a ghost town. At 2 p.m. it was around 130,000 U; at 4 p.m., around 610,000 U; and at 5 and 6 p.m., around 2.08 million and 2.11 million U respectively. That was more in a single hour than the total for the entire previous week.
Open interest: around 350,000 U at 10 a.m., rising to around 1.37 million U by 6 p.m.—nearly four times higher. The account long-short ratio fell steadily from 1.38 to around 0.52. Roughly two-thirds of accounts were short, and about 73,000 U in shorts were liquidated at 5 p.m. But the large traders' long-short ratio stayed close to 1.0, with big money balanced on both sides. It was mainly retail traders who kept getting more bearish as the price rose.
This quarter-hour that just opened at 7 p.m. is worth watching: volume was around 770,000 U, the highest in any quarter-hour today. The price touched 0.00409, then fell back to around 0.0039, while open interest stayed at 1.37 million U without adding more. The biggest volume, no further rise, and no new money coming in—that's the combination that makes me most cautious.
There's a precedent, too: from October 8 to 10, it also had a rally, climbing from around 0.0016 to 0.003128. On the 10th, it was dumped back to 0.001535 in a single day, giving back the entire move. Today's price has already cleared that previous high. The 0.003–0.0031 area was both the launch point for the move at 5 p.m. and the top of the previous rally.
My view:
I wouldn't chase a long. No news, a doubling in price, and the biggest volume showing up near the highs—chasing here means holding the bag for someone else.
I wouldn't short right now either. Two-thirds of accounts are short, and that pile of retail short positions is fuel for a squeeze. One wick could wipe them out.
If I were to short, I'd wait for two signals to appear together: an hourly close below 0.003436 (the 6 p.m. low), and open interest falling from 1.37 million U. That would suggest longs are pulling out. If so, I'd look first at 0.003–0.0031.
What would prove me wrong: an hourly close holding above 0.00409, with open interest continuing to rise and the account ratio continuing to fall. That would mean shorts are being forced to cover. I'd admit I was wrong and stop calling the top.
Looking back, here's my take on $BTW this morning. I said it would chop between 1.848 and 2.07, and if it broke 1.848, to look back toward 1.676. The noon close broke down at 1.805, and at 1 p.m. it hit a low of 1.672—target reached. But I treated 1.676 as the floor, and then at 4 p.m. it dumped straight to 1.485, falling another 10%-plus. It's now bounced back to 1.83, right below the breakdown level of 1.848. Open interest has risen from around 28.13 million U to around 34 million U, and the funding rate is -0.38% every 4 hours. Shorts are paying about five times what they were this morning. I got the direction right but underestimated the move. Giving only one target after a breakdown assumes the price will stop there. That's a habit I need to change.
This is only an observation of unusual market activity, not financial advice.
Gate perpetuals are currently around 0.00392, up about 109% over 24 hours, with a low of 0.001859 and a high of 0.00409. At 10 a.m. it was still at 0.00198. It broke 0.002 at 11 and started climbing, barely looking back.
How did the volume build? From the early hours through the morning, hourly trading volume was just a few hundred to a little over 8,000 U—dead as a ghost town. At 2 p.m. it was around 130,000 U; at 4 p.m., around 610,000 U; and at 5 and 6 p.m., around 2.08 million and 2.11 million U respectively. That was more in a single hour than the total for the entire previous week.
Open interest: around 350,000 U at 10 a.m., rising to around 1.37 million U by 6 p.m.—nearly four times higher. The account long-short ratio fell steadily from 1.38 to around 0.52. Roughly two-thirds of accounts were short, and about 73,000 U in shorts were liquidated at 5 p.m. But the large traders' long-short ratio stayed close to 1.0, with big money balanced on both sides. It was mainly retail traders who kept getting more bearish as the price rose.
This quarter-hour that just opened at 7 p.m. is worth watching: volume was around 770,000 U, the highest in any quarter-hour today. The price touched 0.00409, then fell back to around 0.0039, while open interest stayed at 1.37 million U without adding more. The biggest volume, no further rise, and no new money coming in—that's the combination that makes me most cautious.
There's a precedent, too: from October 8 to 10, it also had a rally, climbing from around 0.0016 to 0.003128. On the 10th, it was dumped back to 0.001535 in a single day, giving back the entire move. Today's price has already cleared that previous high. The 0.003–0.0031 area was both the launch point for the move at 5 p.m. and the top of the previous rally.
My view:
I wouldn't chase a long. No news, a doubling in price, and the biggest volume showing up near the highs—chasing here means holding the bag for someone else.
I wouldn't short right now either. Two-thirds of accounts are short, and that pile of retail short positions is fuel for a squeeze. One wick could wipe them out.
If I were to short, I'd wait for two signals to appear together: an hourly close below 0.003436 (the 6 p.m. low), and open interest falling from 1.37 million U. That would suggest longs are pulling out. If so, I'd look first at 0.003–0.0031.
What would prove me wrong: an hourly close holding above 0.00409, with open interest continuing to rise and the account ratio continuing to fall. That would mean shorts are being forced to cover. I'd admit I was wrong and stop calling the top.
Looking back, here's my take on $BTW this morning. I said it would chop between 1.848 and 2.07, and if it broke 1.848, to look back toward 1.676. The noon close broke down at 1.805, and at 1 p.m. it hit a low of 1.672—target reached. But I treated 1.676 as the floor, and then at 4 p.m. it dumped straight to 1.485, falling another 10%-plus. It's now bounced back to 1.83, right below the breakdown level of 1.848. Open interest has risen from around 28.13 million U to around 34 million U, and the funding rate is -0.38% every 4 hours. Shorts are paying about five times what they were this morning. I got the direction right but underestimated the move. Giving only one target after a breakdown assumes the price will stop there. That's a habit I need to change.
This is only an observation of unusual market activity, not financial advice.