$XAUT reports $4,118, down 1.09% in 24 hours. I’m underwater again on day 7.
The intraday high was 4,170 and the low was 4,110—a $60 range that wore me down all day.
The real pressure is coming from bonds: the 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to 5.14%.
The market has priced in a 90% probability of a December rate hike, making the opportunity cost of holding gold ridiculously high.
$BTC is also weak, at $81,600, down 0.96% in 24 hours. The sentiment index is still hovering in greed territory at 55.
But institutions see things differently from me: every time prices pull back to the 4,000 level, someone steps in to buy.
They call it structural support. I call it being stuck for 7 days.
The Fed meets next week, and the market puts the probability of no change at 82%, pushing a rate hike straight to December.
So it’s not that gold doesn’t want to rise right now; nobody’s willing to hold on for another day with rates at 5%.
If 4,110 holds, the 4,150 level still needs to be reclaimed. A break below 4,064 would open up the next leg down.
Only a move back above 4,159 puts 4,200 in play. If it falls below 4,064, don’t try to catch the falling knife yet.
#黄金 #十年期美债 #DaySevenUnderwater
The intraday high was 4,170 and the low was 4,110—a $60 range that wore me down all day.
The real pressure is coming from bonds: the 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to 5.14%.
The market has priced in a 90% probability of a December rate hike, making the opportunity cost of holding gold ridiculously high.
$BTC is also weak, at $81,600, down 0.96% in 24 hours. The sentiment index is still hovering in greed territory at 55.
But institutions see things differently from me: every time prices pull back to the 4,000 level, someone steps in to buy.
They call it structural support. I call it being stuck for 7 days.
The Fed meets next week, and the market puts the probability of no change at 82%, pushing a rate hike straight to December.
So it’s not that gold doesn’t want to rise right now; nobody’s willing to hold on for another day with rates at 5%.
If 4,110 holds, the 4,150 level still needs to be reclaimed. A break below 4,064 would open up the next leg down.
Only a move back above 4,159 puts 4,200 in play. If it falls below 4,064, don’t try to catch the falling knife yet.
#黄金 #十年期美债 #DaySevenUnderwater