【The economy is still enjoying good times, but banks have already prepared for a 40% drop 🔥📉】
Group chat: 🔥 加入X先生的粉丝群聊跟进行情
Dimon gave an interview to The Wall Street Journal today. He started by praising the strength of the U.S. economy. Corporate profits have grown significantly, and unemployment remains low. Leverage among businesses and consumers isn’t particularly high either. He described this as a genuinely good time. That was the most relaxed part of the interview.💼
In the same interview, he said he’s already preparing for a 40% drop. That was quite a sharp turn—the economy had just been getting praise. After praising the economy, he immediately started talking about how to guard against a crash. He also said JPMorgan had conducted extremely thorough analyses of every type of risk. He doesn’t even try to guess when these things might happen. He also noted that recessions are often caused by several factors piling up.⚠️
There are three things he’s concerned about. First, persistent inflation that has lasted for five years. Second, massive fiscal deficits that keep piling up. Third, geopolitical uncertainty caused by wars overseas. None of this is new, but he’s willing to say it while markets are near their highs. Those who call him pessimistic may not understand what he’s doing.🏦
The contingency plans go beyond a single number. JPMorgan has run scenarios based on a 40% stock-market drop. It has also modeled bond credit spreads widening by two to three times. If spreads double or triple, borrowing costs for businesses rise accordingly. He said this isn’t about predicting market levels. It’s preparation for making it through the worst day.📊
Markets are already falling today. Asian markets are usually the first to send a signal. South Korea’s stock market fell more than 2% intraday. $BTC is currently at $81,447, down 1.89% over 24 hours. Ethereum is at $2,385, down 2.36%. Compared with a 40% drop, all of these moves are small fluctuations.📉
Personally, I see 40% not as a prediction, but as a stress test. Banks aren’t smarter than you; they simply have to survive the worst day. What individual investors can learn from this isn’t how to guess market levels. It’s where to set the limits on position size and leverage. If you really calculate based on a 40% drop, Bitcoin at 81,000 would fall to 49,000. Crypto leverage is an order of magnitude higher than in the stock market, and the same goes for $BTC .🎯
📌 The key point is that banks are calculating what a 40% drop would mean, while the market is down just 2% today.
Could your current positions withstand a 40% drop?
#美国比特币ETF净流入5.27亿美元 #韩国KOSPI指数跌超2%
Group chat: 🔥 加入X先生的粉丝群聊跟进行情
Dimon gave an interview to The Wall Street Journal today. He started by praising the strength of the U.S. economy. Corporate profits have grown significantly, and unemployment remains low. Leverage among businesses and consumers isn’t particularly high either. He described this as a genuinely good time. That was the most relaxed part of the interview.💼
In the same interview, he said he’s already preparing for a 40% drop. That was quite a sharp turn—the economy had just been getting praise. After praising the economy, he immediately started talking about how to guard against a crash. He also said JPMorgan had conducted extremely thorough analyses of every type of risk. He doesn’t even try to guess when these things might happen. He also noted that recessions are often caused by several factors piling up.⚠️
There are three things he’s concerned about. First, persistent inflation that has lasted for five years. Second, massive fiscal deficits that keep piling up. Third, geopolitical uncertainty caused by wars overseas. None of this is new, but he’s willing to say it while markets are near their highs. Those who call him pessimistic may not understand what he’s doing.🏦
The contingency plans go beyond a single number. JPMorgan has run scenarios based on a 40% stock-market drop. It has also modeled bond credit spreads widening by two to three times. If spreads double or triple, borrowing costs for businesses rise accordingly. He said this isn’t about predicting market levels. It’s preparation for making it through the worst day.📊
Markets are already falling today. Asian markets are usually the first to send a signal. South Korea’s stock market fell more than 2% intraday. $BTC is currently at $81,447, down 1.89% over 24 hours. Ethereum is at $2,385, down 2.36%. Compared with a 40% drop, all of these moves are small fluctuations.📉
Personally, I see 40% not as a prediction, but as a stress test. Banks aren’t smarter than you; they simply have to survive the worst day. What individual investors can learn from this isn’t how to guess market levels. It’s where to set the limits on position size and leverage. If you really calculate based on a 40% drop, Bitcoin at 81,000 would fall to 49,000. Crypto leverage is an order of magnitude higher than in the stock market, and the same goes for $BTC .🎯
📌 The key point is that banks are calculating what a 40% drop would mean, while the market is down just 2% today.
Could your current positions withstand a 40% drop?
#美国比特币ETF净流入5.27亿美元 #韩国KOSPI指数跌超2%