How should you assess a token unlock?
Who receives the unlocked tokens is crucial: teams, early investors, ecosystem incentives, and community airdrop recipients often have different inclinations to sell. A one-time unlock and a linear daily release affect the circulating supply differently: a one-time unlock is concentrated on a single day, while the latter is spread across each day.
Early investors often bought in at prices significantly below the price after launch, so even after a considerable price drop, their holdings may still be in profit.
$ARB saw its first unlock of team and investor allocations in March 2024. Currently at 0.19.