Yesterday after the market closed, my call was “more grinding ahead,” with 83,500 as the level that would prove me wrong. Today we got the answer: the high was 83,095.4, missing that level by $400, then price got hammered all the way down to 81,423—just $200 above the 24-hour low of 81,200. “More grinding ahead” hasn’t been invalidated, but honestly, this price action is uglier than I expected. That brief move to 83,000 was purely a test; it never held.
Funding rates are the most honest indicator. $BTC ’s funding rate fell from 0.0087% to 0.0023%—even the bulls have lost interest in adding leverage. OI shrank from 30,800 contracts to 30,400, and from $2.55 billion to $2.48 billion; some traders have left. $ETH looks the worst, down 2.34%—this morning’s high of 2,446 now feels like window dressing. $SOL is holding up relatively well, down 1.51%.
Next, watch two levels. First, 81,200: if it breaks tonight on rising volume, look straight to 80,800. Yesterday’s low of 80,680 is the last line of defense. Second, 82,000: if the rebound can’t even reach that level, the bulls can forget about a comeback today.
Here’s what would prove me wrong: if $BTC breaks above 82,600 tonight on strong volume and holds there for two hours, “more grinding ahead” is invalidated. I’ll start tomorrow by admitting I was wrong.
At 81,400, are you betting we’ll close above 82,600 tomorrow, or fall back below 80,800?
#BitcoinBreaksAbove83000
Funding rates are the most honest indicator. $BTC ’s funding rate fell from 0.0087% to 0.0023%—even the bulls have lost interest in adding leverage. OI shrank from 30,800 contracts to 30,400, and from $2.55 billion to $2.48 billion; some traders have left. $ETH looks the worst, down 2.34%—this morning’s high of 2,446 now feels like window dressing. $SOL is holding up relatively well, down 1.51%.
Next, watch two levels. First, 81,200: if it breaks tonight on rising volume, look straight to 80,800. Yesterday’s low of 80,680 is the last line of defense. Second, 82,000: if the rebound can’t even reach that level, the bulls can forget about a comeback today.
Here’s what would prove me wrong: if $BTC breaks above 82,600 tonight on strong volume and holds there for two hours, “more grinding ahead” is invalidated. I’ll start tomorrow by admitting I was wrong.
At 81,400, are you betting we’ll close above 82,600 tomorrow, or fall back below 80,800?
#BitcoinBreaksAbove83000