Lam Research’s 10-session losing streak ahead of earnings: down about 24% in two weeks, then up 3% on Monday. I’m watching, not catching a falling knife.
What I noticed: Lam reports after the market close on October 21 (U.S. Eastern Time). The company’s revenue guidance is around $8.1 billion, plus or minus $400 million, versus market expectations of about $8.14 billion.
Pressure from peers: Applied Materials didn’t provide a forecast for wafer fab equipment spending at its investor day on the 13th, and its shares fell about 6.7% that day. ASML said some customers want to order equipment for 2029–2030, but its shares still fell 3.9% that day.
Lam closed Monday at $272.20, still below its 200-day moving average of about $282 and about 38% below its June high of $438.50.
I think the market isn’t worried about a lack of orders, but about when equipment spending will actually happen. It’ll be hard for the stock to find a bottom unless guidance is raised.
Ahead of its earnings report last quarter, the stock also fell from $346 to $252, then closed up about 18% the next day. Whether it can repeat that this time depends on next quarter’s guidance.
What I’ll do: I’ll take another look if the daily close gets back above the 200-day moving average, around $282.
A close below the October 16 low of $263.14 invalidates the setup. I won’t buy the dip.
Do you think Lam will get back above $282 after earnings, or break below $263 first?
$LRCX $AMAT $ASML
#芯片股反弹带动美股上涨 #泛林集团
What I noticed: Lam reports after the market close on October 21 (U.S. Eastern Time). The company’s revenue guidance is around $8.1 billion, plus or minus $400 million, versus market expectations of about $8.14 billion.
Pressure from peers: Applied Materials didn’t provide a forecast for wafer fab equipment spending at its investor day on the 13th, and its shares fell about 6.7% that day. ASML said some customers want to order equipment for 2029–2030, but its shares still fell 3.9% that day.
Lam closed Monday at $272.20, still below its 200-day moving average of about $282 and about 38% below its June high of $438.50.
I think the market isn’t worried about a lack of orders, but about when equipment spending will actually happen. It’ll be hard for the stock to find a bottom unless guidance is raised.
Ahead of its earnings report last quarter, the stock also fell from $346 to $252, then closed up about 18% the next day. Whether it can repeat that this time depends on next quarter’s guidance.
What I’ll do: I’ll take another look if the daily close gets back above the 200-day moving average, around $282.
A close below the October 16 low of $263.14 invalidates the setup. I won’t buy the dip.
Do you think Lam will get back above $282 after earnings, or break below $263 first?
$LRCX $AMAT $ASML
#芯片股反弹带动美股上涨 #泛林集团