Nasdaq and BTC: there’s something going on with their correlation today
Let’s get through the U.S. stock market numbers first, then decide whether crypto is following.
These macro figures are current prices, not a recap:
VIX 18.60 (5-day +10.25%)
U.S. Dollar Index 101.76 (5-day -0.23%)
Crude oil 99.47 (5-day +1.53%, Yahoo)
So: the 10-year yield is at 5.14%, down -1.55% over 5 days. Lower rates give risk assets some room, but what matters is whether the move lasts—not just one daily candle.
Crypto: BTC 81406 (-1.51%), funding rate 0.0067% (8h, Binance USDⓈ-M). ETH at -1.76% is moving in step with BTC at -1.51%; the exchange rate is 0.0293. There’s no independent move, so don’t bet on altcoins alone.
Next, watch whether the 10-year yield can stabilize. If yields keep climbing, I’ll treat rallies in growth stocks and BTC as bounces.
My position: I don’t buy the first dip. Until the decline is accompanied by a drop in open interest, stepping in early is still like catching a falling knife.
Data: Binance spot 24h / Binance USDⓈ-M / Yahoo daily data (5-day change) / altme_fng / mempool_fees / defillama_chains / coingecko_trending. Missing figures are left out.
Are you in cash waiting for a pullback, or already on board?
#宏观 #BTC #U.S.Stocks
Useful note: OI is notional open interest, not trading volume.
A thought: Fear and Greed <25: sentiment is cold, but that doesn’t confirm a bottom.
Data card (same update as the main text; missing figures are marked with a dash):
BTC 81,406 -1.51% Binance spot 24h
ETH 2,385 -1.76% ETH/BTC 0.0293
S&P 7,691 -1.49% Yahoo 5-day
Nasdaq 26,431 -2.99% Yahoo 5-day
Dollar 102 -0.23% DXY 5-day
VIX 18.60 +10.25% Yahoo
Funding rate 0.0067% Open interest 7.77B (24h -1.17) Long/short 1.73 Binance USDⓈ-M
For context: people are discussing “bitcoin OR stock market OR U.S. stocks” - Google News. I’m using it only as background; my conclusions are still based on the figures in the main text.
These are my personal views; figures are from the sources listed in the main text. This is not an instruction to place a trade.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
Let’s get through the U.S. stock market numbers first, then decide whether crypto is following.
These macro figures are current prices, not a recap:
VIX 18.60 (5-day +10.25%)
U.S. Dollar Index 101.76 (5-day -0.23%)
Crude oil 99.47 (5-day +1.53%, Yahoo)
So: the 10-year yield is at 5.14%, down -1.55% over 5 days. Lower rates give risk assets some room, but what matters is whether the move lasts—not just one daily candle.
Crypto: BTC 81406 (-1.51%), funding rate 0.0067% (8h, Binance USDⓈ-M). ETH at -1.76% is moving in step with BTC at -1.51%; the exchange rate is 0.0293. There’s no independent move, so don’t bet on altcoins alone.
Next, watch whether the 10-year yield can stabilize. If yields keep climbing, I’ll treat rallies in growth stocks and BTC as bounces.
My position: I don’t buy the first dip. Until the decline is accompanied by a drop in open interest, stepping in early is still like catching a falling knife.
Data: Binance spot 24h / Binance USDⓈ-M / Yahoo daily data (5-day change) / altme_fng / mempool_fees / defillama_chains / coingecko_trending. Missing figures are left out.
Are you in cash waiting for a pullback, or already on board?
#宏观 #BTC #U.S.Stocks
Useful note: OI is notional open interest, not trading volume.
A thought: Fear and Greed <25: sentiment is cold, but that doesn’t confirm a bottom.
Data card (same update as the main text; missing figures are marked with a dash):
BTC 81,406 -1.51% Binance spot 24h
ETH 2,385 -1.76% ETH/BTC 0.0293
S&P 7,691 -1.49% Yahoo 5-day
Nasdaq 26,431 -2.99% Yahoo 5-day
Dollar 102 -0.23% DXY 5-day
VIX 18.60 +10.25% Yahoo
Funding rate 0.0067% Open interest 7.77B (24h -1.17) Long/short 1.73 Binance USDⓈ-M
For context: people are discussing “bitcoin OR stock market OR U.S. stocks” - Google News. I’m using it only as background; my conclusions are still based on the figures in the main text.
These are my personal views; figures are from the sources listed in the main text. This is not an instruction to place a trade.
$BTC $ETH $SOL