Bitcoin (BTC) is down 1.35% in October through October 19, putting it at risk of posting a second consecutive monthly decline in October. This trend has weakened expectations for “Uptober,” the bullish trend often associated with October.

On-chain data show mixed signals: deposits to Binance from retail investors have risen sharply, while some whale groups have reduced their selling or shifted to accumulation. BTC’s potential recovery still depends on spot buying demand and whether selling pressure persists.

KEY CONTENT

• As of October 19, the 1.35% decline contrasts with October’s historical average return of 18.40%.

• Retailer deposits to Binance rose 54% over 30 days, outpacing the 9.5% increase among whales.

• The 1,000–10,000 BTC holder cohort sharply reduced its distribution, but accumulation signals do not guarantee a price recovery.

Bitcoin has failed to sustain its upward momentum after September

Bitcoin fell 1.35% from the start of October through October 19, after rising 6.33% in September. October’s results are not yet final, so the possibility of two consecutive down Octobers remains.

According to CoinGlass data, October’s historical average return is 18.40%. Current price action runs counter to seasonal bullish expectations, while the fluctuations in June and August reflect the instability of recovery rallies.

Period BTC price change June Down 20.48% August Up 24.95% September Up 6.33% October, as of October 19 Down 1.35% Historical October average Up 18.40%

Source: CoinGlass

Market uncertainty and profit-taking may be contributing to price pressure. However, monthly returns alone are not enough to determine the specific cause of the decline.

Retail deposits to Binance are growing faster than whale deposits

Deposits to Binance associated with retail investors rose 54% over the past 30 days, while whale inflows increased 9.5%. The gap between the two groups has therefore widened.

Metric Start End of 30-day period Increase Retail deposits $7 billion $10.78 billion 54% Whale deposits Not specified $4.6 billion 9.5% Difference in deposits between the two groups $2.8 billion $6.18 billion Rate not specified

Source: CryptoQuant

CryptoQuant data reflects increasing selling pressure from retail investors. If deposits from this group continue to rise, BTC’s short-term upside may be limited, even if whales continue accumulating.

Whales reduce distribution; spot buying remains key

The 1,000–10,000 BTC holder cohort reduced its distribution from 62,600 BTC to 5,230 BTC between September 27 and October 19. This coincided with signs of a shift from distribution to accumulation.

Holder cohort Period Reported activity 1,000–10,000 BTC September 27–October 19 Distribution fell from 62,600 BTC to 5,230 BTC; signs of a shift to accumulation emerged. 100–1,000 BTC Since mid-July Reported to be accumulating, alongside reports of a 75,000 BTC balance decline.

For the 100–1,000 BTC holder cohort, the time frame for the 75,000 BTC balance decline and how it relates to the accumulation signal since mid-July are unclear. Therefore, the two indicators cannot be interpreted as evidence of a continuous upward trend in balances.

Source: CryptoQuant

If sustained, whale accumulation could help absorb some of the selling pressure. However, a lasting Bitcoin recovery still requires a return of spot demand and improved buyer confidence.

Weaker seasonal bullish expectations could also make investors more cautious. If risk appetite continues to fall, altcoins may be negatively affected.

Conclusion

Bitcoin is facing pressure from its October decline and a sharp rise in Binance deposits from retail investors. Reduced whale distribution provides a counterbalance, but is not enough to confirm a recovery; spot demand and selling pressure remain key factors to watch.

Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/bitcoin-co-nguy-co-lai-giam-trong-thang-10-dieu-gi-tiep-theo/

Thank you for reading this article!

Like, comment, and follow TinTucBitcoin to stay up to date with the latest cryptocurrency market news and never miss any important information!

$BTC $ETH $BNB $XRP $SOL