$XAU at $4,144—stuck between 4,064 and 4,227 for three weeks. Will it break out this time, or keep grinding sideways?
Gold’s story looks pretty tangled today. Oil prices are near a five-month high, and inflation worries have pushed Treasury yields higher, with the 10-year yield around 5.1%. Gold pays no interest, so that’s weighing on it. But geopolitical risks and inflation are also providing support from above, which is why gold can’t really rally or break down.
1️⃣ Treasury yields: The 10-year is around 5.14%. Reuters says elevated yields are the main factor weighing on gold prices.
2️⃣ The Fed: It meets on October 28. CME puts the odds of no change at about 82.8%.
3️⃣ Oil prices: Higher energy costs are driving inflation and leaving less room for rate-cut hopes.
Key levels on the chart (COMEX December contract, 4-hour chart):
Resistance: 4,200 / 4,227
Support: 4,100 / 4,064
Scenarios:
Hold above 4,100, and the range-bound trading continues.
Break below 4,064, and the next stop is the big 4,000 level. Some institutions have called for a move below 4,000.
Only a move above 4,227 would break the three-week range.
Tonight (Hong Kong time), I’m watching three things: the 10-year Treasury yield, the U.S. Dollar Index, and crude oil. The Fed doesn’t meet until next week, so yields are likely to be the main driver of gold prices over the next few days.
My take: Until 4,064 breaks, I’m leaning toward a range and won’t chase shorts. What do you think—will 4,000 come first, or 4,227?
⚠️ Just my personal ramblings—not investment advice.
#黄金 #美联储 #Commodities
$XAU
Gold’s story looks pretty tangled today. Oil prices are near a five-month high, and inflation worries have pushed Treasury yields higher, with the 10-year yield around 5.1%. Gold pays no interest, so that’s weighing on it. But geopolitical risks and inflation are also providing support from above, which is why gold can’t really rally or break down.
1️⃣ Treasury yields: The 10-year is around 5.14%. Reuters says elevated yields are the main factor weighing on gold prices.
2️⃣ The Fed: It meets on October 28. CME puts the odds of no change at about 82.8%.
3️⃣ Oil prices: Higher energy costs are driving inflation and leaving less room for rate-cut hopes.
Key levels on the chart (COMEX December contract, 4-hour chart):
Resistance: 4,200 / 4,227
Support: 4,100 / 4,064
Scenarios:
Hold above 4,100, and the range-bound trading continues.
Break below 4,064, and the next stop is the big 4,000 level. Some institutions have called for a move below 4,000.
Only a move above 4,227 would break the three-week range.
Tonight (Hong Kong time), I’m watching three things: the 10-year Treasury yield, the U.S. Dollar Index, and crude oil. The Fed doesn’t meet until next week, so yields are likely to be the main driver of gold prices over the next few days.
My take: Until 4,064 breaks, I’m leaning toward a range and won’t chase shorts. What do you think—will 4,000 come first, or 4,227?
⚠️ Just my personal ramblings—not investment advice.
#黄金 #美联储 #Commodities
$XAU