$KORU Yesterday I said this move was a “retest,” not a reversal. The Korean market open today gave us the answer. First, let’s check yesterday’s call, then look at today’s positioning. There’s one detail in this drop worth a closer look.
First, a quick recap. The two conditions I said would confirm a turn stronger were: a high-volume break above 12.42, and rising open interest. At 18:00, about 1.31 million U pushed the price up to 12.604, and the hourly candle closed at 12.565, so the price condition was met. But open interest fell from about 16.28 million U at 17:00 to about 15.09 million U at 19:00, as roughly 19,000 U in shorts were forced to close. Price up, open interest down: shorts were closing, not new money coming in. The second condition wasn’t met, and I didn’t change my call. Looking back now, adding that extra condition was the right move.
Now for today. Perpetuals are currently around 11.05, down about 7.9% over 24 hours, with a high of 12.604 and a low of 10.81. The 08:00 hourly candle saw about 2.66 million U in volume, falling from 12.03 to 11.19; at 09:00, another roughly 2.15 million U took the price to a low of 10.81. These are the two highest-volume hourly candles over the past two days.
Why the drop? At the same time, EWY fell from 157.9 to 151.8 and is now around 152.9, down about 2.6% over 24 hours. KORU’s move was roughly three times as large. SKHYNIX perpetuals saw about 11.22 million U in volume at 08:00, dropping from 957 to 912, then hitting a low of 898 at 09:00. On the news front, South Korea’s KOSPI opened today at 5,733.57 and fell to an intraday low of 5,555.95. Local reports attributed the decline to concerns about where funding for AI investment will come from and how long memory-chip profits can last. Hynix spot shares fell nearly 5% intraday. Yesterday’s chip-led rally was given back today by the same group of stocks.
Positioning is what I most want to highlight:
From 08:00 to 09:00, as the price kept falling, open interest rose from about 14.08 million U to about 15.15 million U, an increase of more than 7%;
The long-to-short account ratio rose from 2.01 to 2.63 at 10:00, and is now 2.35. More people were going long even as the price fell;
The large-trader long-to-short position ratio dropped from 0.92 to 0.81, with big money shifting toward the short side;
Forced long liquidations totaled only a little over 10,000 U across those three hours.
Retail traders are buying the dip, big money isn’t following, and longs have barely been liquidated. My read is that the market hasn’t finished flushing out positions below.
After 10:00, the rebound peaked at 11.637. At 11:00 and 12:00, roughly 1 million U each pushed the price back down to 10.903, with each bounce making a lower high.
My view:
I’m leaning toward weak consolidation below 11.64, followed by another test of the 10.81 area. 10.74 is where yesterday morning’s rise began. If volume picks up and an hourly candle closes below 10.74, I’ll look back toward 10.0 and 9.776.
What would prove me wrong: an hourly close back above 11.64, with open interest holding steady or rising and the large-trader position ratio recovering above 0.9. That would show it’s not just retail money coming in. I’d admit I was wrong and look toward 12.0–12.4.
The U.S. market open tonight is the second hurdle. SOXL perpetuals are already down 5.8%. If chips continue weakening, 10.74 probably won’t hold.
A quick note on last night’s $UNITREE . I said I leaned toward consolidation, with a break below 72 on the 1-hour chart invalidating the setup. The 21:00 candle closed at 71.74, so by that rule the setup should have been invalidated—but that candle had only about 180,000 U in volume. Today at 09:00 and 10:00, volume was about 2.49 million U and 4.88 million U, respectively, and the price rose to 81.25; it’s now around 76.4. I got the direction right, but my own line kept me on the sidelines. Going forward, invalidation levels need a volume condition too; a low-volume breakdown doesn’t count.
This is only an observation of market conditions and does not constitute investment advice.
First, a quick recap. The two conditions I said would confirm a turn stronger were: a high-volume break above 12.42, and rising open interest. At 18:00, about 1.31 million U pushed the price up to 12.604, and the hourly candle closed at 12.565, so the price condition was met. But open interest fell from about 16.28 million U at 17:00 to about 15.09 million U at 19:00, as roughly 19,000 U in shorts were forced to close. Price up, open interest down: shorts were closing, not new money coming in. The second condition wasn’t met, and I didn’t change my call. Looking back now, adding that extra condition was the right move.
Now for today. Perpetuals are currently around 11.05, down about 7.9% over 24 hours, with a high of 12.604 and a low of 10.81. The 08:00 hourly candle saw about 2.66 million U in volume, falling from 12.03 to 11.19; at 09:00, another roughly 2.15 million U took the price to a low of 10.81. These are the two highest-volume hourly candles over the past two days.
Why the drop? At the same time, EWY fell from 157.9 to 151.8 and is now around 152.9, down about 2.6% over 24 hours. KORU’s move was roughly three times as large. SKHYNIX perpetuals saw about 11.22 million U in volume at 08:00, dropping from 957 to 912, then hitting a low of 898 at 09:00. On the news front, South Korea’s KOSPI opened today at 5,733.57 and fell to an intraday low of 5,555.95. Local reports attributed the decline to concerns about where funding for AI investment will come from and how long memory-chip profits can last. Hynix spot shares fell nearly 5% intraday. Yesterday’s chip-led rally was given back today by the same group of stocks.
Positioning is what I most want to highlight:
From 08:00 to 09:00, as the price kept falling, open interest rose from about 14.08 million U to about 15.15 million U, an increase of more than 7%;
The long-to-short account ratio rose from 2.01 to 2.63 at 10:00, and is now 2.35. More people were going long even as the price fell;
The large-trader long-to-short position ratio dropped from 0.92 to 0.81, with big money shifting toward the short side;
Forced long liquidations totaled only a little over 10,000 U across those three hours.
Retail traders are buying the dip, big money isn’t following, and longs have barely been liquidated. My read is that the market hasn’t finished flushing out positions below.
After 10:00, the rebound peaked at 11.637. At 11:00 and 12:00, roughly 1 million U each pushed the price back down to 10.903, with each bounce making a lower high.
My view:
I’m leaning toward weak consolidation below 11.64, followed by another test of the 10.81 area. 10.74 is where yesterday morning’s rise began. If volume picks up and an hourly candle closes below 10.74, I’ll look back toward 10.0 and 9.776.
What would prove me wrong: an hourly close back above 11.64, with open interest holding steady or rising and the large-trader position ratio recovering above 0.9. That would show it’s not just retail money coming in. I’d admit I was wrong and look toward 12.0–12.4.
The U.S. market open tonight is the second hurdle. SOXL perpetuals are already down 5.8%. If chips continue weakening, 10.74 probably won’t hold.
A quick note on last night’s $UNITREE . I said I leaned toward consolidation, with a break below 72 on the 1-hour chart invalidating the setup. The 21:00 candle closed at 71.74, so by that rule the setup should have been invalidated—but that candle had only about 180,000 U in volume. Today at 09:00 and 10:00, volume was about 2.49 million U and 4.88 million U, respectively, and the price rose to 81.25; it’s now around 76.4. I got the direction right, but my own line kept me on the sidelines. Going forward, invalidation levels need a volume condition too; a low-volume breakdown doesn’t count.
This is only an observation of market conditions and does not constitute investment advice.