$Niu Lai’s rebound today is healthier than the one over the previous two days: price has recovered, but open interest has not surged as traders chased the move. However, moving-average resistance remains, so it’s too early to call this rebound a reversal.
At 10:58, spot was around 0.05859, up about 5.0% from the 24-hour low of 0.05582. Price has reclaimed the 1-hour EMA20 at around 0.05780 and is testing the EMA50 at around 0.05863. Perpetual open interest was up 0.27% over 24 hours and 0.26% over the past 3 hours; the funding rate was around 0.005%. The fact is that price has recovered faster than positions have expanded. The market inference is that the rebound is not yet notably crowded, but perpetual trading volume was about $11.24 million—still 4.8 times spot volume of $2.34 million—so volatility remains driven by derivatives.
A sustained 1-hour hold above 0.05865 would count as a second-stage recovery. The next resistance is the 4-hour EMA20 at around 0.06006. A fall back below 0.05780 would weaken the picture; a break below 0.05620 would raise the risk of a retest of 0.05582. The direction of large positions and the concentration of holdings remain unknown. #牛来 #Market Analysis
At 10:58, spot was around 0.05859, up about 5.0% from the 24-hour low of 0.05582. Price has reclaimed the 1-hour EMA20 at around 0.05780 and is testing the EMA50 at around 0.05863. Perpetual open interest was up 0.27% over 24 hours and 0.26% over the past 3 hours; the funding rate was around 0.005%. The fact is that price has recovered faster than positions have expanded. The market inference is that the rebound is not yet notably crowded, but perpetual trading volume was about $11.24 million—still 4.8 times spot volume of $2.34 million—so volatility remains driven by derivatives.
A sustained 1-hour hold above 0.05865 would count as a second-stage recovery. The next resistance is the 4-hour EMA20 at around 0.06006. A fall back below 0.05780 would weaken the picture; a break below 0.05620 would raise the risk of a retest of 0.05582. The direction of large positions and the concentration of holdings remain unknown. #牛来 #Market Analysis