$SOL is stuck at 104. Before Alpenglow goes live, I’m watching just two numbers: 100 and 109.
Here’s what I found: Anza announced that Alpenglow will switch over to mainnet at around 22:50 Beijing time on 10/21, replacing TowerBFT, which has been in use since 2020.
The official estimate is that finality will drop from about 12.8 seconds to around 150 milliseconds.
Yet the price is down about 16% from its 10/2 high of 123.7.
The daily price is below the 50-day moving average at 109.4, while the 10/18 low of 100.3 has just held.
Firedancer won’t be supported during the migration, so validators will temporarily need to switch back to an Agave-based client. Jito-Solana, which is behind $JTO, is among them.
CoinDesk cautions that once voting is moved off-chain, the number of on-chain transactions will plunge—but that doesn’t mean there are fewer users.
My take: The date was made public a week ago, so the good news has already been priced in. This is a big deal for technology, but a small deal for price.
The risks to watch for are scary headlines about a “plunge in transaction counts” on the day of the switch, and something going wrong with the migration.
What I’m doing: I’ll watch before the upgrade, without chasing or trying to buy the dip. Same goes for $JTO.
Support is at 100.3 (the 10/18 low); if it falls below 95.7 (the 9/15 low), I won’t try to catch a falling knife.
Resistance is at 109.4 (the 50-day moving average). If it breaks above 113.3 (the 10/12 high) on strong volume, that would show the market is genuinely buying into the upgrade—and invalidate this view.
Which way are you betting: back above 109 after the upgrade, or below 100 first?
SOL JTO
#sol板块 #solana
Here’s what I found: Anza announced that Alpenglow will switch over to mainnet at around 22:50 Beijing time on 10/21, replacing TowerBFT, which has been in use since 2020.
The official estimate is that finality will drop from about 12.8 seconds to around 150 milliseconds.
Yet the price is down about 16% from its 10/2 high of 123.7.
The daily price is below the 50-day moving average at 109.4, while the 10/18 low of 100.3 has just held.
Firedancer won’t be supported during the migration, so validators will temporarily need to switch back to an Agave-based client. Jito-Solana, which is behind $JTO, is among them.
CoinDesk cautions that once voting is moved off-chain, the number of on-chain transactions will plunge—but that doesn’t mean there are fewer users.
My take: The date was made public a week ago, so the good news has already been priced in. This is a big deal for technology, but a small deal for price.
The risks to watch for are scary headlines about a “plunge in transaction counts” on the day of the switch, and something going wrong with the migration.
What I’m doing: I’ll watch before the upgrade, without chasing or trying to buy the dip. Same goes for $JTO.
Support is at 100.3 (the 10/18 low); if it falls below 95.7 (the 9/15 low), I won’t try to catch a falling knife.
Resistance is at 109.4 (the 50-day moving average). If it breaks above 113.3 (the 10/12 high) on strong volume, that would show the market is genuinely buying into the upgrade—and invalidate this view.
Which way are you betting: back above 109 after the upgrade, or below 100 first?
SOL JTO
#sol板块 #solana