$BTW That move at 2 a.m.—I watched it all morning. Here’s the conclusion upfront: most of the money that pushed the price up has now left.
The perpetual is currently around 1.99, down about 14% over 24 hours, with a daily high of 2.349 and low of 1.676. Last night it slid all the way down from 2.3, hitting 1.676 at 01:00—a drop of nearly 30%.
At 02:05 it suddenly took off, surging from 1.726 to 1.97 in 35 minutes. That hour’s volume was about 3 million U, well above the 1–2 million U per hour the night before. The key thing was open interest: around 30.29 million U at 01:00, then jumping straight to about 36.16 million U at 02:00—up nearly 6 million U in an hour. Short liquidations were only a little over 7,000 U, and the account long/short ratio actually fell from 0.62 to 0.58. So it wasn’t shorts getting liquidated and pushing the price up; someone opened a large batch of new positions, and even more accounts followed by going short.
After that, it reached 2.146 at 05:00 and touched 2.165 at 06:15, but failed to break through either time. It started moving down at 06:45, hit a low of 1.848 at 07:45, and is now back around 1.99. Open interest had already fallen back to about 31.35 million U by 07:00, just over 1 million above the 30.29 million before the surge. In other words, roughly 80% of the positions opened during that early-morning move have already closed, while the price is still somewhat higher than before the surge.
Here’s how the market looks now: around two-thirds of accounts are short, and the funding rate is -0.077% every 4 hours, so shorts keep paying to hold their positions. It looks like a short squeeze might be coming, but there was a real chance to squeeze shorts during that early-morning move, and hardly any shorts got liquidated—which suggests their positions aren’t that vulnerable.
My take:
I wouldn’t chase longs, or chase shorts around 1.85. I expect it to chop between 1.848 and 2.07; that early-morning move looks like a false breakout that hasn’t fully played out.
If it breaks below 1.848, it will likely head back to 1.676.
What would prove me wrong: a high-volume move above 2.07 (the high of that early-morning candle), while open interest climbs back above 35 million U and the account ratio keeps falling. That would mean shorts are genuinely being forced to cover. I’d admit I was wrong, with 2.165 as the next target.
Looking back at DNA yesterday afternoon: I said I wouldn’t buy at 0.235, and that I’d admit I was wrong if it reclaimed 0.24. Then at 22:00, one candle surged to 0.2471 and the hourly candle closed at 0.2438. By my own criteria, I should have admitted I was wrong that hour—but the next hour it fell back to 0.233, and it’s now at 0.232, so it didn’t hold. Not buying didn’t cost me, but my invalidation level was too tight; a single wick hit it. For small coins like this, I should wait for the close to hold for two hours before calling myself wrong, rather than judging by a single candle.
This is market commentary only, not financial advice.
The perpetual is currently around 1.99, down about 14% over 24 hours, with a daily high of 2.349 and low of 1.676. Last night it slid all the way down from 2.3, hitting 1.676 at 01:00—a drop of nearly 30%.
At 02:05 it suddenly took off, surging from 1.726 to 1.97 in 35 minutes. That hour’s volume was about 3 million U, well above the 1–2 million U per hour the night before. The key thing was open interest: around 30.29 million U at 01:00, then jumping straight to about 36.16 million U at 02:00—up nearly 6 million U in an hour. Short liquidations were only a little over 7,000 U, and the account long/short ratio actually fell from 0.62 to 0.58. So it wasn’t shorts getting liquidated and pushing the price up; someone opened a large batch of new positions, and even more accounts followed by going short.
After that, it reached 2.146 at 05:00 and touched 2.165 at 06:15, but failed to break through either time. It started moving down at 06:45, hit a low of 1.848 at 07:45, and is now back around 1.99. Open interest had already fallen back to about 31.35 million U by 07:00, just over 1 million above the 30.29 million before the surge. In other words, roughly 80% of the positions opened during that early-morning move have already closed, while the price is still somewhat higher than before the surge.
Here’s how the market looks now: around two-thirds of accounts are short, and the funding rate is -0.077% every 4 hours, so shorts keep paying to hold their positions. It looks like a short squeeze might be coming, but there was a real chance to squeeze shorts during that early-morning move, and hardly any shorts got liquidated—which suggests their positions aren’t that vulnerable.
My take:
I wouldn’t chase longs, or chase shorts around 1.85. I expect it to chop between 1.848 and 2.07; that early-morning move looks like a false breakout that hasn’t fully played out.
If it breaks below 1.848, it will likely head back to 1.676.
What would prove me wrong: a high-volume move above 2.07 (the high of that early-morning candle), while open interest climbs back above 35 million U and the account ratio keeps falling. That would mean shorts are genuinely being forced to cover. I’d admit I was wrong, with 2.165 as the next target.
Looking back at DNA yesterday afternoon: I said I wouldn’t buy at 0.235, and that I’d admit I was wrong if it reclaimed 0.24. Then at 22:00, one candle surged to 0.2471 and the hourly candle closed at 0.2438. By my own criteria, I should have admitted I was wrong that hour—but the next hour it fell back to 0.233, and it’s now at 0.232, so it didn’t hold. Not buying didn’t cost me, but my invalidation level was too tight; a single wick hit it. For small coins like this, I should wait for the close to hold for two hours before calling myself wrong, rather than judging by a single candle.
This is market commentary only, not financial advice.