$BR Just a moment ago, this was a rebound on shrinking volume and falling open interest; the latest completed hourly candle has now turned into an upward push on rising volume and open interest. From 23:00 on October 19 to midnight on the 20th, the price rose from 0.51944 to 0.61619, up 18.63%. Trading volume was about 50.0795 million USDT, 2.67 times that of the previous hour, while open interest increased by 7.20%. I acknowledge that the evidence for this move is stronger than it was an hour earlier, but I won’t treat a sharp rally as proof that a subsequent pullback has already held.
The previous note recorded a close of 0.51943 from 22:00 to 23:00. At the time, volume had contracted and open interest had declined, and the price had still not fully reclaimed 0.53997. The change in the new hour is clear: the low was 0.51916, and the entire hour held above 0.51059. The close not only cleared 0.53997, but also exceeded the previous pullback high of 0.55271. Reclaiming the old level and holding it more firmly is more significant than looking at the rolling 24-hour gain alone.
However, we need to distinguish how far the price held. Although the latest hourly low was above 0.51059, it was still below 0.53997. The price climbed from lower levels, so it did not remain above the previous high for the entire hour. The high was 0.61998 and the close was 0.61619, very near the high, which supports the view that the upward move was still holding at the close. Whether the next pullback can leave a higher low will be the new evidence that tests whether this acceleration can continue.
Volume and open interest have also changed the picture. The previous hour’s rebound had volume of about 18.7517 million and OI fell 2.95%; in the new hour, volume was 50.0795 million and OI rose from about 23.3383 million BR to 25.0188 million BR, an increase of 7.20%. More contracts remained in the market as the price rose, so we can no longer describe this as “merely a recovery driven by position reductions.” But this still does not identify whether the new positions are long or short, and an increase in contract count cannot be called a net inflow of funds; it does not prove who the buyers were, the scale of liquidations, or the specific reason for the rise.
The completed 20:00–24:00 four-hour candle provides another point of comparison. It rose 18.64%, with volume of about 121.77 million USDT, 3.01 times that of 16:00–20:00, and closed at 0.61619. We can now discuss the results of a complete four-hour candle, rather than treating it as an unfinished intraday move. But within this window, the price first spiked, then dropped sharply, and then rebounded; it reached as low as 0.47102, so it did not rise steadily throughout the four hours.
Open interest is especially important: it was about 24.8602 million BR at 20:00 and about 25.0188 million at midnight, an increase of only about 0.64% over the entire four hours. The 7.20% increase in the final hour occurred mainly after open interest had already fallen earlier. Applying the single-hour increase in open interest to the full four-hour period would give the false impression that positions were being added continuously throughout. In reality, the end-of-period figure was only slightly above the window’s starting point. Price gains and changes in participation structure must be compared over windows of equal length.
The funding rate that settled at midnight was -0.019318%, a clear narrowing from -0.071381% at 20:00. This is a newly settled reading, not an estimate for the next period, and it is not enough to confirm a short squeeze. I rechecked the Bedrock official website, but still found no announcement from the same period that could independently explain this sharp rise. The website’s product information and BR participation mechanism cannot substitute for evidence of new business demand in this hour.
At 00:02, the latest trade was around 0.61574. The new 00:00–01:00 hourly candle and 00:00–04:00 four-hour candle are both still incomplete. I’ll first watch whether subsequent completed hourly candles can hold the price when it pulls back toward the 0.55271–0.53997 area, rather than focusing only on whether 0.61998 is briefly touched. If rising volume and open interest are accompanied by repeated closes back below the old high, the quality of the advance will need to be reassessed. If the pullback narrows and the old high is gradually held, there will be a stronger basis for discussing continuation.
The previous note recorded a close of 0.51943 from 22:00 to 23:00. At the time, volume had contracted and open interest had declined, and the price had still not fully reclaimed 0.53997. The change in the new hour is clear: the low was 0.51916, and the entire hour held above 0.51059. The close not only cleared 0.53997, but also exceeded the previous pullback high of 0.55271. Reclaiming the old level and holding it more firmly is more significant than looking at the rolling 24-hour gain alone.
However, we need to distinguish how far the price held. Although the latest hourly low was above 0.51059, it was still below 0.53997. The price climbed from lower levels, so it did not remain above the previous high for the entire hour. The high was 0.61998 and the close was 0.61619, very near the high, which supports the view that the upward move was still holding at the close. Whether the next pullback can leave a higher low will be the new evidence that tests whether this acceleration can continue.
Volume and open interest have also changed the picture. The previous hour’s rebound had volume of about 18.7517 million and OI fell 2.95%; in the new hour, volume was 50.0795 million and OI rose from about 23.3383 million BR to 25.0188 million BR, an increase of 7.20%. More contracts remained in the market as the price rose, so we can no longer describe this as “merely a recovery driven by position reductions.” But this still does not identify whether the new positions are long or short, and an increase in contract count cannot be called a net inflow of funds; it does not prove who the buyers were, the scale of liquidations, or the specific reason for the rise.
The completed 20:00–24:00 four-hour candle provides another point of comparison. It rose 18.64%, with volume of about 121.77 million USDT, 3.01 times that of 16:00–20:00, and closed at 0.61619. We can now discuss the results of a complete four-hour candle, rather than treating it as an unfinished intraday move. But within this window, the price first spiked, then dropped sharply, and then rebounded; it reached as low as 0.47102, so it did not rise steadily throughout the four hours.
Open interest is especially important: it was about 24.8602 million BR at 20:00 and about 25.0188 million at midnight, an increase of only about 0.64% over the entire four hours. The 7.20% increase in the final hour occurred mainly after open interest had already fallen earlier. Applying the single-hour increase in open interest to the full four-hour period would give the false impression that positions were being added continuously throughout. In reality, the end-of-period figure was only slightly above the window’s starting point. Price gains and changes in participation structure must be compared over windows of equal length.
The funding rate that settled at midnight was -0.019318%, a clear narrowing from -0.071381% at 20:00. This is a newly settled reading, not an estimate for the next period, and it is not enough to confirm a short squeeze. I rechecked the Bedrock official website, but still found no announcement from the same period that could independently explain this sharp rise. The website’s product information and BR participation mechanism cannot substitute for evidence of new business demand in this hour.
At 00:02, the latest trade was around 0.61574. The new 00:00–01:00 hourly candle and 00:00–04:00 four-hour candle are both still incomplete. I’ll first watch whether subsequent completed hourly candles can hold the price when it pulls back toward the 0.55271–0.53997 area, rather than focusing only on whether 0.61998 is briefly touched. If rising volume and open interest are accompanied by repeated closes back below the old high, the quality of the advance will need to be reassessed. If the pullback narrows and the old high is gradually held, there will be a stronger basis for discussing continuation.