The most influential person for crypto this week isn’t Fed chief Warsh—it’s the captain of any tanker currently passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Look at the chain reaction. Attacks on vessels have cut oil flows from the Gulf to around 8.5 million barrels a day, down from more than 20 million the week before. Brent closed Friday at its highest level since May and is now around $108. In September’s CPI, gasoline accounted for more than half of the monthly price increase. That’s why inflation is at 3.7% and people are talking about a rate hike in December. And today, Warsh said outright that he wouldn’t make any promises in advance. In other words, the Fed will watch oil and make its decision based on what happens. Which means we should be watching it too. My take: as long as Brent is above $100, any crypto bounce is a breather, not a reversal. This morning, Bitcoin touched 83k and immediately pulled back. The market knows where the real lever is right now. Are you keeping an eye on oil, or just the chart?