Brazil’s presidential election is Polymarket’s biggest market yet
Total volume: $187 to $188 million
since it opened in September 2025. 4211
It’s currently the platform’s second-largest open market, behind only the market for the 2028 Republican nominee in the US.
For the runoff on 10/25:
- Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) is priced at ∼77–78%
- Lula (PT) at ∼22–23%
- In other words, the market pays 77 cents for every dollar if Flávio wins. 9232
There’s even a separate market just for the runoff’s margin of victory, which has already seen more than $2.5M in trading volume on its own—the most popular bet there is a Flávio win by less than 4%.
This isn’t polling; it’s money. People are putting their money where they think things are headed, after Flávio finished the first round ahead with 47.03% to 45.16%.
Total volume: $187 to $188 million
since it opened in September 2025. 4211
It’s currently the platform’s second-largest open market, behind only the market for the 2028 Republican nominee in the US.
For the runoff on 10/25:
- Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) is priced at ∼77–78%
- Lula (PT) at ∼22–23%
- In other words, the market pays 77 cents for every dollar if Flávio wins. 9232
There’s even a separate market just for the runoff’s margin of victory, which has already seen more than $2.5M in trading volume on its own—the most popular bet there is a Flávio win by less than 4%.
This isn’t polling; it’s money. People are putting their money where they think things are headed, after Flávio finished the first round ahead with 47.03% to 45.16%.