Homebuilder confidence just hit its lowest point since 2012. Not a surprise when you think about it—mortgage rates have made buying a home feel like a luxury purchase for most people.

The math is brutal: higher rates, higher prices, stagnant wages. Builders see it. Buyers feel it. The housing market isn't frozen because people don't want homes. It's frozen because they can't afford them.

This isn't a temporary blip. It's what happens when affordability breaks. And when housing stalls, a lot of the economy stalls with it.