星期天-77

Just stating a fact:

$BTC fell to around 79,500 on Saturday, dropping below its 50-day moving average after staying above it for 66 consecutive days. At the same time, Bitcoin ETFs saw more than $635 million in net outflows in a single day.

Binance’s tokenized Circle (CRCLB) also slid, falling from Friday’s regular-session close of 85.91 to 83.89, down about 2.3%. Its 1-hour RSI(6) dropped to 18.

Circle’s earnings depend on interest from its reserves, yet its stock often moves with crypto prices. When crypto weakens, the weekend token is the first to price in the sentiment (in my view).

The real price will emerge when the U.S. market opens on Monday; the current numbers look more like a preview.
#Circle $CRCL #股票财报季

Here’s a fact:

$ZEC has risen about 27% in two or three days, while BTC is still hovering around 83,000.

This rally wasn’t driven by the broader market. NU7 set November 6 as its activation date: uncertainty became a date on the calendar, and money was willing to take a position early.

But the 1-hour RSI(6) is already at 90, and the price is above the upper Bollinger Band. The key is knowing when the money betting on expectations will sell.

#zcash #zec #Zcash开发者确认11月NU7升级

Binance Oracle

Holy shit!

$UNI is back at 6.8 again. It went full circle this week.

Early Monday morning—that is, Sunday night—it dipped to 6.81, and I was thinking of buying more. Then, in less than two days, it shot up to 7.79, a 14% gain. I thought, surely it’s time to get out now.

And then?

From Wednesday to Friday, it just kept grinding down, without managing to hold onto even a slight bounce. It’s at 6.807 now, giving back nearly 13% from the high and landing right on the previous low of 6.81. After a full circle, all the gains are gone. Back where we started.

The most painful part is that I did nothing all week, yet somehow feel like I lost money. I didn’t chase it on the way up or buy more on the way down. I just watched it go up, then watched it come back down.

This is an awkward spot. It bounced after hitting 6.8 last time, and now it’s touching that level again. I can’t say for sure it’ll hold. A support level is support only if it holds; otherwise, it’s just a number. I don’t know where it’ll go if it breaks, and I don’t want to guess.

Trading volume is low over the weekend. One twitch of the hand and we could get another wick.

I don’t have much UNI, and I’m sitting tight today.

Did you place orders around 6.8, or are you waiting to see if it breaks first?

Honestly, I want to hear whether anyone actually dares to catch it.
#Uniswap #UNI #股票财报季

币安神算子报名

A lot of people ask: Where do the points come from?

The tasks listed in the announcement include: signing up for events, early-bird reservations, new user rewards, inviting friends, daily check-ins, Spot/Convert/Futures tasks, posting on Binance Square, and the Supply Station.

Check the Events page to see which tasks are available to your account. Tasks vary by region.

#BinanceOracle

Here’s a fact:

SanDisk closed at $1,260.93 on Thursday, down 8.5% for the day, leaving it up about 430% this year.

The sell-off points to the broader storage sector: Micron and Western Digital also fell about 6% that day, as the market worried about ChangXin’s capacity expansion and AI spending.

SanDisk’s P/E ratio is under 19, suggesting the market isn’t worried about this year’s earnings, but is betting on how long the cycle can last.

Ahead of its October 29 earnings report, the stock is trading on that question—not the numbers.
#Sandisk #SNDK $SNDK

币安神算子报名

Binance Oracle: How it works, in a nutshell:

1️⃣ Sign up
2️⃣ Complete tasks to earn points
3️⃣ Use points to make esports/sports/finance predictions
4️⃣ Climb the leaderboard to win rewards

Key point: Predictions use event points, not your principal.

#币安神算子 #Binance #USDC

This is hardly trading U.S. stocks—Intel is straight-up making a fool of me.

Look at the chart: the day before yesterday, it was still hovering around 95, and last night it smashed straight through the floor to 84.03. My heart sank—I thought it was headed for 70. Then I woke up today and, sure enough, it got yanked right back up to 87.72. Looks pretty lively, doesn't it?

This kind of “slap you in the face, then offer you a sweet” price action really messes with your head. The short-term RSI shot straight up to 72. It looks like a dead-cat bounce, but look up at that 95 gap—it's packed with trapped holders. With volume this low, it can barely even break above the Bollinger Band's middle line.

The worst part is, earnings roulette is about to begin. That bullish candle the night before earnings—is it trying to bail you out, or lure you in so you can be left holding the bag? I, for one, don't believe institutions are suddenly being that generous.

I'm staring at this red candle with my hands shoved in my pockets, clenched tight. I'm not moving. Absolutely not. Even if it climbs back to 90 tonight, so be it—I'm not catching a falling knife at a time like this.

If you're holding shares or options, are you planning to use this bounce to cut your losses and get out, or are you going to stubbornly hold on until earnings are revealed?

#intel #INTC #比特币突破8.2万美元 $INTC

Here’s a fact:

$ZEC fell from a high of 1,368 to 1,230, giving back about 10%, but this time the trigger wasn’t ZEC itself.

BTC surged to around 84,800 last night before getting slammed back to 81,800. Tesla and Meta earnings revived concerns about AI spending, and altcoins fell harder than BTC.

ZEC’s open interest fell more than its price did (at the time of CoinDesk’s tally): longs are closing positions, not adding to them.

NU7’s November 6 (GMT) date is still on the calendar. This round looks more like a leverage flush-out than a discredited narrative (my assessment).
#zec #zcash #币安神算子

I want to become a creator who **“speaks human”**.

When I first got into this space, I was confused by all kinds of jargon too: candlestick charts, contracts, on-chain data… Every term felt like a wall. So I hope every piece I write helps beginners understand things at a glance and avoid one more pitfall. @Caicai诗雨

Where does the SpaceX and Tesla merger stand now?

Already happened: The boards of both companies have each formed special committees made up of independent directors, and Musk himself is not participating in the discussions.
Not yet happened: There are no terms, and Tesla’s latest proxy statement contains no merger proposal.
What’s the sticking point: The Tesla side needs approval from a majority of all outstanding shares. Musk himself has said that’s a fairly high bar.

SpaceX rose about 8% after hours, with better-than-expected earnings and merger speculation combining.
#SpaceX #Tesla $TSLA $SPCX

$ZEC These past two days, this pump has been a real thrill.

It was still at 1049 in the early hours of Monday, and I was staring at the screen wondering whether to cut my losses. Then, in less than two days, it shot straight up to 1296—nearly a 25% gain. Those green candles last night just kept getting stronger. I was getting a little hyped just watching.

It’s at 1260 now, with 1300 just overhead.

Everyone’s asking: can it rally even harder?

Honestly, I can’t say. I’ve seen what this coin is like: last week it could dump 8 or 9 points in a day, and this week it can claw back a big chunk in a day. Could it surge again? Sure. The previous high was 1388 on October 6, and above that is 1650 from September. Could it pull back? Also sure. It’s just rallied over 20%, and there must be plenty of holders looking to take profits.

The levels I’m watching: 1300 above is a psychological barrier; it only counts as a real breakout if it holds above that. Around 1200 below is where the rally began these past two days; holding there would be a healthy sign.

But I know this is exactly the kind of level where it’s easy to get itchy fingers. The harder it rallies, the more I want to chase—and by the time I get in, it’s often ready to take a breather.

I’m not chasing or selling today. I’m just watching.

Did you get in around 1260, or are you waiting for a pullback?
#zcash #zec #瑞士批准首只比特币ETF

$SOL This week feels like walking down a staircase, one step at a time.

Last week it was still at 111, now it’s at 104. After surging to 108.67 on Wednesday, every bounce has been a little lower than the last—the highs keep getting lower. On Sunday night it dipped all the way to 100.43. I remember thinking, “Oh no, it’s going to break below 100.”

But buyers showed up above 100.

On Monday it climbed back to 106, and just when I thought, “Okay, okay, we’re good,” it slowly slid back to 104 this afternoon. At this level, it’s neither here nor there—like something’s dragging it along.

The part I’m most conflicted about is the 100–101 range. It’s dipped into that zone twice this week, and bounced both times. You could call that support, but I don’t dare trust it. If it holds, it’s support; if it doesn’t, it’s just a number. I’ve paid plenty of tuition learning that lesson.

Honestly, I have mixed feelings about SOL right now. I don’t want to chase it, because none of these bounces have held. I don’t want to sell either, because it feels like there are buyers waiting below 100. So I’m just holding on in this half-dead state, opening the app three or five times a day, then closing it again.

Sometimes I wonder if I’m the only one this exhausted.

I didn’t make a move today, and I probably won’t tomorrow either.

Are you placing orders below 100, or waiting to see if it breaks first?

#solana #sol #韩国KOSPI指数跌超2%

A pop at the U.S. market open: Sandisk +7%, SK Hynix +6%, Micron +5%, Nvidia +2%, Philadelphia Semiconductor Index +2.8%. It recouped half of the losses from one day last week. But neither concerns about AI returns nor worries about ChangXin remain resolved, and SK Hynix shares in Seoul still closed lower today. I’ve been burned by rebounds before, so I’m not calling this a reversal. Did you chase it?

Data as of around 11:05 a.m. Eastern: Micron was up 5.15%, SK Hynix ADR was up 6.24%, Sandisk was up 7.55%, Nvidia was up 2.06%, and oil prices were retreating. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was up 2.80%. At the open, the Nasdaq was up 0.9% and the S&P 500 was up 0.54%.

The Seoul Economic Daily reported that Nvidia asked three manufacturers to switch to TSMC's 3-nanometer process for producing HBM base dies. Micron announced a technical event later this week to present its roadmaps for DRAM, HBM, and NAND. Last week's risks remain: returns on AI infrastructure spending are being questioned, and ChangXin Memory's DRAM technology could intensify competition. SK Hynix shares listed in Seoul closed lower that day.

$SNDK $MUB $SKHY

$UNI From last night to today, it put on a textbook show of “scaring you but making it impossible to hate.”

It started sliding around nine or ten on Sunday night, grinding its way down from 7.3 to 6.8, and dipping to 6.806 at four in the morning. I checked before bed and thought, “That’s it, it’s going to break 7 again. No way I’m getting any sleep tonight.”

And then?

Before daybreak, it climbed back up on its own. It kept rising through the afternoon, hitting a high of 7.486—almost 10% up from the low. When I woke up this morning, I thought, “Wow, nothing happened at all.” The price was even higher than when I went to bed.

It’s back to 7.40 now, giving some of that back.

I’ve noticed this really annoying pattern: the more I want to buy more, the more it drops. By the time I’ve finished hesitating, it’s bounced back. Same thing this time. When it was at 6.8, I practically had my finger on the button, then pulled back. Now it’s at 7.35, and I want to chase it but don’t want to pay up; if I don’t, I’m afraid it’ll keep rising.

What’s interesting is the open interest in futures: it kept falling as the price dropped, then slowly climbed back up after the price recovered. It feels like one batch of people got shaken out, and another batch came in. I’m not sure—that’s just how it looks to me.

Last week I was complaining that UNI couldn’t get going, and today I got proven wrong. But honestly, compared with the grind before, I still don’t trust this little rally.

I haven’t done anything. Just watching.

Did any of you buy around 6.8 last night? Let me know—I want to know if anyone caught the bottom.
#uniswap #UNI #比特币重回8.2万美元上方

$ZEC has had my heart racing again these past couple of days.

It plunged all the way to 1048 early Monday morning. I stared at the screen, wondering if it was going to fall below 1000. But within a few hours, it was pulled back up to 1167—a rebound of 11 points. That’s just how this coin behaves: swings of 10 points in either direction in a day are normal.

Everyone’s asking now: Can it break out? How high can it go?

Honestly, I don’t dare call a price target. Back in September, it surged to 1650; now it’s nearly 30% below that level. Some say this downturn is because leverage had piled up too high; others say it’s due to fears that AI could crack encryption. But the tailwinds for privacy coins—and Grayscale’s spot ZEC ETF—haven’t gone away.

My own levels are pretty rough: 1100 to 1125 below; if it breaks through that, then I’m watching 1000. Above, 1200 to 1300 is resistance, with 1285 being the high from a few days ago. It won’t count as a real breakout unless it can hold above 1300. If it can’t, then it’s still just grinding around in a range.

If you ask whether I’m bullish or bearish, all I can say is: both sides have a point, and I don’t dare go in heavy either way.

With a coin like this, in a single day you can go from “I’m a genius” to “I’m exit liquidity.”

For now, I’m just watching. I’m not chasing it, and I’m not selling.

Do you think ZEC can get above 1300 this time? Tell me why—I’d like to hear some different opinions.
#zcash #zec #ZcashNU7提案拟冻结Sprout支出

I opened the daily chart on Monday morning and did a double take.

$BTC was at 82,489, and $ETH was at 2,426. Both were up a little, and things looked pretty calm. But when I zoomed out, I realized we’d been on a full-blown roller coaster for more than a month.

BTC climbed all the way from 62,685 to 87,374, gaining nearly 40%. ETH was even more intense, surging from 1,869 to 2,807—a 50% gain. Back then, I would’ve believed anyone who said, “The bull market is back.”

Then the gains started slowly slipping away.

BTC is now down about 5.6% from its high, while ETH has fallen nearly 14%. See? The more they rise, the more they give back. That’s just how ETH is. The big guy catches a cold, and it comes down with a fever.

The most frustrating part is the way it’s pulling back. It’s not crashing—it’s grinding us down. A small red candle today, a small green one tomorrow; a lower wick dips down, then recovers. You want to sell, but it hasn’t fallen much. You want to buy more, but you have no idea where the bottom is.

CPI and PPI spooked me twice in a row last week, so now every data release makes me a little jumpy. The U.S. market opens again tonight, and semiconductors fell for eight straight days through last Friday. If they keep dropping on Monday, crypto will probably get rattled too.

I haven’t touched my positions. Just watching.

Honestly, my biggest takeaway right now is: the market hasn’t collapsed, but people are exhausted.

Do you think this is a consolidation after the rally, or a shakeout before the next leg up?
#bitcoin #BTC #ETH #BitcoinBreaksAbove$82,000

U.S. markets were closed, so crypto took another hit in their place.

Over the weekend, BTC briefly fell below $81,000, and ETH dipped below $2,400. Around $115 million in long positions were liquidated within an hour. Then BTC bounced back to $81,400 in just half an hour, and is now hovering around $81,600, basically flat over the past 24 hours.

Honestly, compared with Wednesday and Thursday, this is just a drizzle. But sentiment is genuinely awful.

Looking back at U.S. stocks last Friday: the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 3.8%, closing lower for an eighth straight day—its longest losing streak since 2008. SK Hynix ADR fell 6.6%, Sandisk dropped 6.9%, and Micron fell 5.6%, while Nvidia held up relatively well.

This is when crypto gets caught in the most awkward position. The U.S. market closes, and everyone’s anxiety has nowhere to go, so it all pours into crypto. Some data puts BTC’s current correlation with the S&P 500 at around 85%—meaning when U.S. stocks sneeze, crypto catches a cold.

I haven’t made a move; I’m just watching. Monday’s U.S. market open is the key. If semiconductors take another leg down, crypto probably won’t be able to hold up either. If they find a bottom, then we spent the whole weekend worrying for nothing.

I don’t dare guess. I’ve already paid my tuition trying to buy the dip.

How did you get through the weekend? Still watching the charts?

#BTC #bitcoin #SNDK #比特币突破8.2万美元
$SNDK $MUB $BTC

$BTC This week, it was down only about 2% on paper, but the ride was ugly:

Wednesday: September CPI came in at 3.7% year over year, above expectations of 3.6%, and BTC immediately dropped about $1,000
Thursday: Fell below $80,000 intraday, hitting a low of 79,732
Friday: ETF net outflows of about $82.39 million
Weekend: 81,891, grinding between 81,000 and 82,000

Tech stocks were sold off this week, and BTC followed suit. The next major milestone is the Fed meeting on October 27–28.

#BTC #bitcoin #比特币突破8.2万美元

$SOL This move is interesting: it broke below the lower Bollinger Band, but nobody's rushing to buy the dip.

On 10/12, it plunged straight from 113.38 to 100.51, dropping 11% in three days. Then it bounced back to around 106 and traded sideways for two days. Over the past two days, it's slid again and is now at 103.51, just below the lower Bollinger Band (103.62).

RSI6 has already fallen to 27.18, so it really is oversold in the short term. But open interest has been declining over the past two days. After hitting a high near 9M on 10/16, it started to pull back. That suggests the money that came in during the rebound is now moving out, not buying the dip.

This is the hardest kind of setup: technically, an oversold bounce is due, but capital is flowing out. I don't try to guess the bottom. I'll wait for RSI6 to get back above 50 or for price to reclaim 104.46 (the middle band) before turning bullish. If it breaks below the previous low of 100.51, I'll consider this the start of another downtrend and won't try to catch a falling knife.

A coin that's been falling for almost a week and is still grinding out a bottom is more exhausting than one that gets cut in half outright. Do you think SOL is forming a bottom, or just wearing everyone down?
#solana #sol