CME’s $UNI futures are set to launch today, with 10,000 coins per standard contract and 1,000 per micro contract. The launch hasn’t been met with a rally: since the October 5 high, the price is already down 20%. On X, people are chalking it up to “buy the rumor, sell the news.”
I think that explanation is lazy. Futures don’t buy spot; they provide a hedging tool. Treating them as a catalyst for a rally is counting on the wrong thing.
The number to watch comes from Token Terminal, reported on October 17: September protocol revenue was $14.81 million, the highest monthly figure since the fee switch was turned on, with 53% coming from Robinhood Chain. The chain only launched in July, but its share has grown from 20% to 40% and now 53%. Most of its activity is in tokenized stocks, and its average onchain fee rate is 0.465%—more than twice the network-wide average.
Ten days ago, I wrote that the data used to argue $UNI was bearish on the grounds of “halved fees” didn’t add up. These September figures show the other side of the same story: cash flow is hitting records; it’s just coming from a different engine.
So rather than focus on what happens in the first few hours after CME opens, I’m watching the 6.8 level. The price tested 6.74–6.81 three times in October, but recovered by the close each time. If it ever closes below that level on the daily chart, it’ll mean selling pressure is too much for the new engine to withstand—and I’ll have been wrong. Until then, most of the 20% decline looks driven by sentiment, not revenue.
#UNI #Uniswap
I think that explanation is lazy. Futures don’t buy spot; they provide a hedging tool. Treating them as a catalyst for a rally is counting on the wrong thing.
The number to watch comes from Token Terminal, reported on October 17: September protocol revenue was $14.81 million, the highest monthly figure since the fee switch was turned on, with 53% coming from Robinhood Chain. The chain only launched in July, but its share has grown from 20% to 40% and now 53%. Most of its activity is in tokenized stocks, and its average onchain fee rate is 0.465%—more than twice the network-wide average.
Ten days ago, I wrote that the data used to argue $UNI was bearish on the grounds of “halved fees” didn’t add up. These September figures show the other side of the same story: cash flow is hitting records; it’s just coming from a different engine.
So rather than focus on what happens in the first few hours after CME opens, I’m watching the 6.8 level. The price tested 6.74–6.81 three times in October, but recovered by the close each time. If it ever closes below that level on the daily chart, it’ll mean selling pressure is too much for the new engine to withstand—and I’ll have been wrong. Until then, most of the 20% decline looks driven by sentiment, not revenue.
#UNI #Uniswap