Daily market update

After BTC rebounded above 82,000 yesterday, it fell again to 80,684 in the early hours of this morning, extending the previous 1-hour correction. Short-term price action is still quite choppy, with many false moves in the short-term structure. If your stop-loss is too tight, it’s easy to get stopped out before the price rebounds again.

Today, BTC rebounded above 83,000 again. This should be the third 1-hour rebound leg within the 4-hour rebound. Judging by the structure, this leg does not appear to be finished yet, so wait patiently.

Looking at the timing of the rebound, if it continues through tomorrow, this 4-hour rebound will have lasted only four days, which is on the short side. Personally, I think it should consist of five legs, so we can keep an eye on it. This 4-hour rebound should be able to wrap up by the end of the week. After that, the price should continue falling and break below 80,000.

Short- to medium-term trend direction

Main direction on the 4h timeframe: The short-term expectation is for the second 4h rebound within the daily correction to be underway. Watch its strength.

1h trend direction: The third 1h rebound within the current 4h rebound is underway.

BTC short-term

Because short-term market conditions change quickly, this article can only offer a forecast based on conditions at the time of publication. Short-term traders should pay attention to the latest market movements; this is for reference only.

1H:

1) On the 1h timeframe, my view remains unchanged for now: the third 1h rebound is underway, and is expected to continue until tomorrow. Watch the 83000–84000 range above.

2) Tomorrow or the day after, the fourth 1h pullback would normally be expected. As long as this pullback does not fall below 80500, a fifth 1h rebound should follow, extending the 4h rebound.

3) The overall second 4h rebound should be complete this week. Next week, watch the strength of the third 4h decline.

15M:

1) The drop in the early hours was really just a feint; it effectively extended the weekend's 1h decline.

2) It's not yet clear whether this first 15-minute rebound is over. A second 15-minute pullback should occur tonight. As long as it doesn't fall below 80900, a third 15-minute rebound should follow, pushing back above 83000.

3) In the short-term market, some people go long and others go short; neither is inherently wrong. For example, when the price pulled back this morning, someone went long near 81000, aiming for a rebound to 83000–84000, and made a profit. Someone else went short near 83000 this afternoon, aiming to catch a $1,000 pullback to around 82000, and may have made a similar profit. So the issue with short-term swing trading has never been that you can only trade in one direction, or that only one direction can be right. What matters is whether you short after a rebound or chase the price down, whether you go long after a drop or chase the price up, and which timeframe's upward or downward move you're trading. You also need to distinguish whether the market is ranging or trending in one direction.

ETH

1) Yesterday, Ethereum's 15-minute rebound failed to break above 2441. It fell again in the early hours today and broke below 2329, effectively extending the preceding 1h decline.

2) Today, Ethereum broke above 2441. This should be the third 1h rebound. For now, watch around 2490 above.

3) On the 15-minute timeframe, the first rebound topped out at just 2446 and failed to form a strong rebound followed by a third-buy setup. This suggests the current 1h rebound is likely to be limited in strength. The previous high around 2494 is a reasonable target above; don't expect too much.

4) The current expectation is for the second 15-minute pullback. As long as it does not fall below 2355, a third 15-minute rebound should follow, moving up to test around 2490.

5) After the third 1h rebound is complete, as long as the next 1h decline does not fall below 2350, there will most likely be a fifth 1h rebound that takes the price above 2520​​​