$BTC Evening market analysis
Guys, the casino has opened its doors again for a new week. Is everyone’s ammo ready?
Yesterday, Bitcoin surged from 80,600 to above 83,000, but a few bearish candles have now slammed it straight back to 82,200.
Last week, the Fed reported September CPI at 3.7% year over year, while PPI also came in hotter than expected. Inflationary pressure hasn’t eased. This means expectations for Fed rate cuts have been pushed back, and the probability of a December rate hike even briefly jumped to 76%. Bitcoin is a non-yielding asset, so the higher interest rates go, the more likely institutions are to reduce their positions during a rebound.
ETF funds have also continued flowing out. For the week ending October 16, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of about $228 million, marking a second consecutive week of outflows.
That wick down to 80,600 was a panic shakeout. The run of green candles up to 83,000 was a technical recovery plus short covering. But above 83,000, trading volume clearly failed to keep up, which shows there was no fresh money coming in to carry the rally forward. Macroeconomic pressure, ETF outflows, and greedy sentiment—three major headwinds weighing on the market. A pullback after the rally was inevitable.
At 82,200, we’re stuck in the middle. 83,000 above is resistance that’s just been confirmed, while 81,500–81,800 below is short-term support. Don’t chase the rally; wait for a pullback to stabilize before considering a long. If you want to short, wait for a rebound to around 82,800 and then try with a small position. #比特币突破8.3万美元
Guys, the casino has opened its doors again for a new week. Is everyone’s ammo ready?
Yesterday, Bitcoin surged from 80,600 to above 83,000, but a few bearish candles have now slammed it straight back to 82,200.
Last week, the Fed reported September CPI at 3.7% year over year, while PPI also came in hotter than expected. Inflationary pressure hasn’t eased. This means expectations for Fed rate cuts have been pushed back, and the probability of a December rate hike even briefly jumped to 76%. Bitcoin is a non-yielding asset, so the higher interest rates go, the more likely institutions are to reduce their positions during a rebound.
ETF funds have also continued flowing out. For the week ending October 16, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of about $228 million, marking a second consecutive week of outflows.
That wick down to 80,600 was a panic shakeout. The run of green candles up to 83,000 was a technical recovery plus short covering. But above 83,000, trading volume clearly failed to keep up, which shows there was no fresh money coming in to carry the rally forward. Macroeconomic pressure, ETF outflows, and greedy sentiment—three major headwinds weighing on the market. A pullback after the rally was inevitable.
At 82,200, we’re stuck in the middle. 83,000 above is resistance that’s just been confirmed, while 81,500–81,800 below is short-term support. Don’t chase the rally; wait for a pullback to stabilize before considering a long. If you want to short, wait for a rebound to around 82,800 and then try with a small position. #比特币突破8.3万美元
