$CT The candle at 15:40 woke up the whole market. What matters most now isn’t how much it has risen, but the settlement at 20:00.
Perpetual is around 0.358, 24h +16%, intraday high 0.4313, intraday low 0.2846 (the spike at 1:00 a.m.).
Before 15:40 it had been hovering around 0.30, with only a few thousand U trading every 5 minutes; the 5-minute candle at 15:40 was about 1.61 million U, pumping it straight from 0.3026 to 0.4313 and closing at 0.379. The whole 15:00 hour traded about 2.95 million U, while each previous hour was only 10,000 to 20,000 U. I didn’t find any project-side news, so I’d read it as a funding-driven move.
Position changes tell the story:
Open interest was about 370,000 U at 14:00, 590,000 U at 15:00, 740,000 U at 17:00, and now about 640,000 U;
The long/short account ratio flipped from 0.80 to 1.45, and is now 1.28, meaning the ones coming in after the pump are mainly longs;
The 16:00 settlement rate was -0.23%, and the 20:00 forecast is -1.17%/4h. Perpetual is below the index (0.3583 vs 0.3617), so shorts are paying longs.
My playbook:
1. After 18:00, it has rebounded three times from 0.350–0.352, which is the current support. If a retest doesn’t break, a small long can be taken to catch the 20:00 funding payment. If it breaks below 0.3336 (the 16:55 low), get out and don’t hold through it.
2. On the upside, first watch 0.38–0.40. It spiked to 0.4045 at 16:40 but couldn’t hold, so take off half there first. If it breaks 0.4045 with volume, then look at 0.4313; don’t chase the first candle.
3. Don’t short. With funding at -1.17%, shorts pay every 4 hours, so even if the direction is right, you’re still working for the longs.
4. -1.17% looks juicy, but a 1.2% drop in price wipes it out. Don’t chase higher just for funding. This market’s open interest is only a bit over 600,000 U, so both entries and exits have slippage; position size should be smaller than usual.
What if I’m wrong: if it breaks below 0.3336 and open interest keeps falling, that means the longs who chased the afternoon move are exiting, and we should look back toward 0.30, the breakout point from 15:40.
Back to the morning $BTC call: I said to go long on a retest of 82100–82265 that held, targeting 82888. Before the move higher, the low only came back to 82237, so it didn’t break; at 15:30 it hit 83120, which exceeded the target. But by 18:30 it was back to 82076, and now around 82158, basically back to where it started. I only wrote “don’t chase the first candle above 82888,” but didn’t say what to do once the target was reached, so holding it all the way through was basically a wasted trip. I’ll add “take off half at the target” to the CT notes today.
Observation only, not advice.
Perpetual is around 0.358, 24h +16%, intraday high 0.4313, intraday low 0.2846 (the spike at 1:00 a.m.).
Before 15:40 it had been hovering around 0.30, with only a few thousand U trading every 5 minutes; the 5-minute candle at 15:40 was about 1.61 million U, pumping it straight from 0.3026 to 0.4313 and closing at 0.379. The whole 15:00 hour traded about 2.95 million U, while each previous hour was only 10,000 to 20,000 U. I didn’t find any project-side news, so I’d read it as a funding-driven move.
Position changes tell the story:
Open interest was about 370,000 U at 14:00, 590,000 U at 15:00, 740,000 U at 17:00, and now about 640,000 U;
The long/short account ratio flipped from 0.80 to 1.45, and is now 1.28, meaning the ones coming in after the pump are mainly longs;
The 16:00 settlement rate was -0.23%, and the 20:00 forecast is -1.17%/4h. Perpetual is below the index (0.3583 vs 0.3617), so shorts are paying longs.
My playbook:
1. After 18:00, it has rebounded three times from 0.350–0.352, which is the current support. If a retest doesn’t break, a small long can be taken to catch the 20:00 funding payment. If it breaks below 0.3336 (the 16:55 low), get out and don’t hold through it.
2. On the upside, first watch 0.38–0.40. It spiked to 0.4045 at 16:40 but couldn’t hold, so take off half there first. If it breaks 0.4045 with volume, then look at 0.4313; don’t chase the first candle.
3. Don’t short. With funding at -1.17%, shorts pay every 4 hours, so even if the direction is right, you’re still working for the longs.
4. -1.17% looks juicy, but a 1.2% drop in price wipes it out. Don’t chase higher just for funding. This market’s open interest is only a bit over 600,000 U, so both entries and exits have slippage; position size should be smaller than usual.
What if I’m wrong: if it breaks below 0.3336 and open interest keeps falling, that means the longs who chased the afternoon move are exiting, and we should look back toward 0.30, the breakout point from 15:40.
Back to the morning $BTC call: I said to go long on a retest of 82100–82265 that held, targeting 82888. Before the move higher, the low only came back to 82237, so it didn’t break; at 15:30 it hit 83120, which exceeded the target. But by 18:30 it was back to 82076, and now around 82158, basically back to where it started. I only wrote “don’t chase the first candle above 82888,” but didn’t say what to do once the target was reached, so holding it all the way through was basically a wasted trip. I’ll add “take off half at the target” to the CT notes today.
Observation only, not advice.