CryptoQuant says Bitcoin’s supply-demand dynamics are shifting, but a strong recovery remains challenging. According to PANews, exchange reserves rose from about 2.67 million BTC in early October to about 2.68 million BTC, still well below January levels. The analysis said low reserves do not necessarily indicate an ongoing supply contraction, as transfers may reflect custody changes, and the increase alone does not prove selling.

Spot demand recovery has stalled: 30-day spot demand briefly approached zero before turning negative again, while positive perpetual futures demand has supported overall demand.

Whale activity is mixed. Addresses holding 100 to 1,000 BTC have continued to accumulate on a net basis over the past 60 days, but their accumulation is below its late-September peak. The 1,000-to-10,000 BTC cohort’s net accumulation has neared zero, while addresses holding more than 10,000 BTC are net sellers. CryptoQuant said accumulation is not broad-based.

CryptoQuant said conditions that could support a Bitcoin bottom remain in place. A firm recovery would require sustained spot demand, buyers able to absorb BTC returning to exchanges, and accumulation spreading to more holder groups. Expectations around the U.S. midterm elections and monetary policy would also need to translate into actual buying. The analysis said a key question is whether rising prices can attract a growing and persistent pool of buyers.