📰 BTC’s supply-and-demand picture is indeed changing, but this recovery has been uneven. CryptoQuant data shows exchange reserves rising from around 2.67 million BTC in early October to about 2.68 million. Although that’s still well below January levels, it doesn’t necessarily mean supply is continuing to shrink.
🔥 This 10,000 BTC increase doesn’t mean those coins are about to be sold. The transfers may simply reflect a change in custody arrangements, and exchange reserves alone make it hard to gauge selling pressure. What’s more concerning is that 30-day spot demand briefly came close to zero before turning negative.
Perpetual futures demand is currently positive, providing support for overall demand. Honestly, this setup isn’t especially reassuring: futures are seeing buyers, but spot buying hasn’t followed through, so the recovery could easily falter.
👀 Whales haven’t entered the market en masse either. Addresses holding 100 to 1,000 BTC have continued to accumulate on a net basis over the past 60 days, but at a slower pace than at the late-September peak. The net outflows from holders of 1,000 to 10,000 BTC are now close to zero, while those holding more than 10,000 BTC are still net sellers.
💡 There are still conditions for a bottom to form, but a solid recovery will require spot demand to return consistently, and buyers to absorb BTC flowing back onto exchanges. Expectations around the U.S. midterm elections and monetary policy will ultimately have to translate into actual buying.
🤔 What do you think matters more next: spot demand turning positive, or the biggest whales stopping their selling?
#BTC #比特币 #CryptoQuant #On-ChainData
🔥 This 10,000 BTC increase doesn’t mean those coins are about to be sold. The transfers may simply reflect a change in custody arrangements, and exchange reserves alone make it hard to gauge selling pressure. What’s more concerning is that 30-day spot demand briefly came close to zero before turning negative.
Perpetual futures demand is currently positive, providing support for overall demand. Honestly, this setup isn’t especially reassuring: futures are seeing buyers, but spot buying hasn’t followed through, so the recovery could easily falter.
👀 Whales haven’t entered the market en masse either. Addresses holding 100 to 1,000 BTC have continued to accumulate on a net basis over the past 60 days, but at a slower pace than at the late-September peak. The net outflows from holders of 1,000 to 10,000 BTC are now close to zero, while those holding more than 10,000 BTC are still net sellers.
💡 There are still conditions for a bottom to form, but a solid recovery will require spot demand to return consistently, and buyers to absorb BTC flowing back onto exchanges. Expectations around the U.S. midterm elections and monetary policy will ultimately have to translate into actual buying.
🤔 What do you think matters more next: spot demand turning positive, or the biggest whales stopping their selling?
#BTC #比特币 #CryptoQuant #On-ChainData