Market Awaits a Rebound from the Lows | Paul Quantitative Weekly Report, Issue 418
Crypto Market
The crypto market continued to pull back last week. After a B-wave rebound, Bitcoin and Ether turned lower again, largely fulfilling our earlier outlook for a C-wave decline. Bitcoin fell to around 79,800 at its lowest, while Ether dipped to 2,320. Most major coins also hit new lows for this correction.
Looking at the overall corrective structure, Bitcoin’s maximum pullback from its recent high is still less than 8%, making it relatively resilient. Ether has corrected more sharply, falling about 17% from its high and retesting support at the early-September consolidation range. Although the market staged a sharp V-shaped rebound at one point, it failed to break through overhead resistance, indicating that the correction may not be over yet.
Bitcoin has now tested support around 80,000 several times, while Ether has repeatedly tested the 2,320–2,350 zone, with neither seeing a further sharp decline. At the same time, Bitcoin has formed confluence among lows across multiple timeframes, from 30M to 4H, while Ether has also formed lows on the 2H and 4H charts. This suggests that the market is showing a clearer need to find a bottom.
However, judging by the wave structure, Bitcoin’s C-wave decline has been relatively shallow so far, so we cannot yet rule out the possibility of a further C5 move down. We can watch for a rebound in the short term, but it is too early to confirm that the correction is over. For Bitcoin, the first levels to watch overhead are 83,000 and the blue resistance line. A sustained move back above 84,000 would significantly strengthen the rebound structure. Support remains around 80,000.
On Ether’s 4H chart, a clear descending trendline has formed, and continued sideways movement or a rebound could both lead to a breakout. In the short term, watch 2,500 as overhead resistance; a further recovery would require Ether to reclaim around 2,570. The 2,320–2,350 zone is an important near-term support area. If it continues to hold and more signals of lows emerge, a short-term rebound opportunity may develop.
Over the weekend, a sharp decline in U.S. equities prompted another choppy pullback in major coins, though prices had already recovered somewhat by the morning. Another batch of new hourly lows may emerge in the short term. This week, the key will be whether these signals can drive a local rebound, and whether any rebound can spread from a handful of coins to the broader market.
TradFi and Commodities
In TradFi, QQQ fell more than 5% in total last week, posting its largest weekly bearish candle in nearly a year. The 12H and daily highs that formed earlier have already prompted a noticeable correction, with around 700 serving as an important near-term support level. Although QQQ rebounded somewhat from this support zone over the weekend, the correction may continue if it fails to reclaim 730.
Storage, semiconductor, and technology stocks have fallen significantly more than the crypto market. Some have dropped more than 30% over the past two weeks and are now in oversold territory. Several are beginning to show confluence among their low signals. This week, we can watch the strength of any rebound following these signals, but until the indices show a clear improvement, these moves should still be viewed as oversold bounces.
Among commodities, gold remains within its previous trading range. Although 4H and 12H lows have appeared recently, the rebound remains weak. The 4,220 level is key to whether gold can re-enter an uptrend; if it fails to reclaim this level, support around 4,100 may be tested again.
Silver has recently returned to support at its previous lows and formed a 12H low, so we can watch for signs of a potential short-term bottom. Oil has moved back above its 4H trendline; in the short term, watch whether it can continue advancing toward 96.
Weekly Summary
Overall, the market completed a second pullback following last week’s B-wave rebound. Bitcoin and Ether have both reached important support zones and are beginning to show concentrated low signals across multiple timeframes. Conditions for a short-term rebound are in place, but whether the correction has truly ended will depend on whether Bitcoin can break above 83,000 and reclaim 84,000, and whether Ether can recover 2,500. Until a rebound is confirmed, the focus remains on managing risk and waiting for opportunities at the lows.
#保罗量化周报 $BTC $ETH #比特币 #以太坊 #加密市场 #Gold
Crypto Market
The crypto market continued to pull back last week. After a B-wave rebound, Bitcoin and Ether turned lower again, largely fulfilling our earlier outlook for a C-wave decline. Bitcoin fell to around 79,800 at its lowest, while Ether dipped to 2,320. Most major coins also hit new lows for this correction.
Looking at the overall corrective structure, Bitcoin’s maximum pullback from its recent high is still less than 8%, making it relatively resilient. Ether has corrected more sharply, falling about 17% from its high and retesting support at the early-September consolidation range. Although the market staged a sharp V-shaped rebound at one point, it failed to break through overhead resistance, indicating that the correction may not be over yet.
Bitcoin has now tested support around 80,000 several times, while Ether has repeatedly tested the 2,320–2,350 zone, with neither seeing a further sharp decline. At the same time, Bitcoin has formed confluence among lows across multiple timeframes, from 30M to 4H, while Ether has also formed lows on the 2H and 4H charts. This suggests that the market is showing a clearer need to find a bottom.
However, judging by the wave structure, Bitcoin’s C-wave decline has been relatively shallow so far, so we cannot yet rule out the possibility of a further C5 move down. We can watch for a rebound in the short term, but it is too early to confirm that the correction is over. For Bitcoin, the first levels to watch overhead are 83,000 and the blue resistance line. A sustained move back above 84,000 would significantly strengthen the rebound structure. Support remains around 80,000.
On Ether’s 4H chart, a clear descending trendline has formed, and continued sideways movement or a rebound could both lead to a breakout. In the short term, watch 2,500 as overhead resistance; a further recovery would require Ether to reclaim around 2,570. The 2,320–2,350 zone is an important near-term support area. If it continues to hold and more signals of lows emerge, a short-term rebound opportunity may develop.
Over the weekend, a sharp decline in U.S. equities prompted another choppy pullback in major coins, though prices had already recovered somewhat by the morning. Another batch of new hourly lows may emerge in the short term. This week, the key will be whether these signals can drive a local rebound, and whether any rebound can spread from a handful of coins to the broader market.
TradFi and Commodities
In TradFi, QQQ fell more than 5% in total last week, posting its largest weekly bearish candle in nearly a year. The 12H and daily highs that formed earlier have already prompted a noticeable correction, with around 700 serving as an important near-term support level. Although QQQ rebounded somewhat from this support zone over the weekend, the correction may continue if it fails to reclaim 730.
Storage, semiconductor, and technology stocks have fallen significantly more than the crypto market. Some have dropped more than 30% over the past two weeks and are now in oversold territory. Several are beginning to show confluence among their low signals. This week, we can watch the strength of any rebound following these signals, but until the indices show a clear improvement, these moves should still be viewed as oversold bounces.
Among commodities, gold remains within its previous trading range. Although 4H and 12H lows have appeared recently, the rebound remains weak. The 4,220 level is key to whether gold can re-enter an uptrend; if it fails to reclaim this level, support around 4,100 may be tested again.
Silver has recently returned to support at its previous lows and formed a 12H low, so we can watch for signs of a potential short-term bottom. Oil has moved back above its 4H trendline; in the short term, watch whether it can continue advancing toward 96.
Weekly Summary
Overall, the market completed a second pullback following last week’s B-wave rebound. Bitcoin and Ether have both reached important support zones and are beginning to show concentrated low signals across multiple timeframes. Conditions for a short-term rebound are in place, but whether the correction has truly ended will depend on whether Bitcoin can break above 83,000 and reclaim 84,000, and whether Ether can recover 2,500. Until a rebound is confirmed, the focus remains on managing risk and waiting for opportunities at the lows.
#保罗量化周报 $BTC $ETH #比特币 #以太坊 #加密市场 #Gold