$AVA dumped over 6 points in just 15 minutes, with volume hitting 2.4 times the norm. Price broke below the lows of nearly 20 recent 5-minute candles, and the price-volume action looks pretty ugly.
But there’s something interesting on closer inspection: 1h OI is still up 1.24%. Price is falling while open interest is rising—a classic sign of leveraged shorts piling in, not just a long-side capitulation. The funding rate is still in the upper end of its recent range, which suggests plenty of people were long before and are getting squeezed now. Aggressive trade flow is at -6.3%; the selling pressure is real.
Given this setup, I’m not keen to chase shorts. The short side is too crowded, and with funding this high, even a small bounce could trigger a squeeze as shorts rush to cover. I’d rather watch the lower end of the range for a possible false breakdown and reclaim. 24-hour trading volume is over 120 million, so liquidity is sufficient. No need to panic.
I’ll wait and see.
But there’s something interesting on closer inspection: 1h OI is still up 1.24%. Price is falling while open interest is rising—a classic sign of leveraged shorts piling in, not just a long-side capitulation. The funding rate is still in the upper end of its recent range, which suggests plenty of people were long before and are getting squeezed now. Aggressive trade flow is at -6.3%; the selling pressure is real.
Given this setup, I’m not keen to chase shorts. The short side is too crowded, and with funding this high, even a small bounce could trigger a squeeze as shorts rush to cover. I’d rather watch the lower end of the range for a possible false breakdown and reclaim. 24-hour trading volume is over 120 million, so liquidity is sufficient. No need to panic.
I’ll wait and see.