$BTC Analyzing Bitcoin and the AI debt crisis currently drawing market attention
I. AI debt: cracks are emerging on Wall Street
1. Morgan Stanley expects global AI-related debt issuance to approach $570 billion in 2026.
2. At one point, five-year CDS on AI computing company CoreWeave implied a model-based default probability of about 63%, but this does not mean the company has defaulted.
3. BTC at $1 million. Arthur Hayes has made the aggressive prediction that Bitcoin could reach this price in the long term.
CoreWeave (CRWV) borrows to buy GPUs and build data centers, then rents computing power to Microsoft and OpenAI. Yields on some of its bonds maturing in 2032 once exceeded 15%, highlighting the risk of debt repayment.
II. Why is AI squeezing Bitcoin liquidity recently?
Arthur Hayes believes AI capital expenditure is competing for funds with Bitcoin. He estimates that AI-related financing from 2022 to 2026 will total about $1.6 trillion, close to the increase in US M2 over the same period.
This does not mean all newly created money is being absorbed by AI. Rather, AI stocks, bonds, and data centers are competing for funds, squeezing other risk assets.
An increase in M2 does not mean Bitcoin must rise; what matters is where the money flows. Competition is more pronounced when interest rates are high, and Bitcoin's price is also affected by Treasury yields and ETF flows.
III. Why might Bitcoin fall first when a crisis erupts?
In the long term, Bitcoin may hedge against currency debasement, but in the short term it often behaves like a high-volatility tech stock.
If an AI debt crisis triggers a US stock market decline and institutional deleveraging, Bitcoin may be among the first assets sold to raise cash.
In a panic, investors seek liquidity first, not long-term value.
IV. Why could an AI crash also benefit Bitcoin?
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan believes that if an AI bubble triggers a recession, Bitcoin may initially fall along with the market. But if the Federal Reserve then pivots to rate cuts and provides liquidity, Bitcoin's price could benefit.
During the COVID-19 panic in 2020, Bitcoin fell below $5,000, then rose above $60,000, driven by factors including monetary easing, the halving, and institutional adoption.
Final summary
The AI industry is not necessarily a bubble, but its highly leveraged financing is worth watching closely. CoreWeave may be just one reflection of the AI financing cycle. What determines Bitcoin's long-term cycle is not the good or bad news on any given day, but where the money in the entire financial system flows!
Buy the dip! I have never changed my view. Given the current macroeconomic backdrop, Bitcoin may deliver positive returns sooner than you expect!
#比特币突破8.2万美元 $ETH
I. AI debt: cracks are emerging on Wall Street
1. Morgan Stanley expects global AI-related debt issuance to approach $570 billion in 2026.
2. At one point, five-year CDS on AI computing company CoreWeave implied a model-based default probability of about 63%, but this does not mean the company has defaulted.
3. BTC at $1 million. Arthur Hayes has made the aggressive prediction that Bitcoin could reach this price in the long term.
CoreWeave (CRWV) borrows to buy GPUs and build data centers, then rents computing power to Microsoft and OpenAI. Yields on some of its bonds maturing in 2032 once exceeded 15%, highlighting the risk of debt repayment.
II. Why is AI squeezing Bitcoin liquidity recently?
Arthur Hayes believes AI capital expenditure is competing for funds with Bitcoin. He estimates that AI-related financing from 2022 to 2026 will total about $1.6 trillion, close to the increase in US M2 over the same period.
This does not mean all newly created money is being absorbed by AI. Rather, AI stocks, bonds, and data centers are competing for funds, squeezing other risk assets.
An increase in M2 does not mean Bitcoin must rise; what matters is where the money flows. Competition is more pronounced when interest rates are high, and Bitcoin's price is also affected by Treasury yields and ETF flows.
III. Why might Bitcoin fall first when a crisis erupts?
In the long term, Bitcoin may hedge against currency debasement, but in the short term it often behaves like a high-volatility tech stock.
If an AI debt crisis triggers a US stock market decline and institutional deleveraging, Bitcoin may be among the first assets sold to raise cash.
In a panic, investors seek liquidity first, not long-term value.
IV. Why could an AI crash also benefit Bitcoin?
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan believes that if an AI bubble triggers a recession, Bitcoin may initially fall along with the market. But if the Federal Reserve then pivots to rate cuts and provides liquidity, Bitcoin's price could benefit.
During the COVID-19 panic in 2020, Bitcoin fell below $5,000, then rose above $60,000, driven by factors including monetary easing, the halving, and institutional adoption.
Final summary
The AI industry is not necessarily a bubble, but its highly leveraged financing is worth watching closely. CoreWeave may be just one reflection of the AI financing cycle. What determines Bitcoin's long-term cycle is not the good or bad news on any given day, but where the money in the entire financial system flows!
Buy the dip! I have never changed my view. Given the current macroeconomic backdrop, Bitcoin may deliver positive returns sooner than you expect!
#比特币突破8.2万美元 $ETH