【Think an 85% drop means it’s time to buy the dip? You might have it backwards again】
A lot of people see HBAR down 85% from its peak and their first thought is, “It’s so cheap now—time to buy, right?”
I used to think that way back in 2017. A big drop isn’t a reason to buy; it just means the price it was trading at before wasn’t justified in the first place. HBAR is now at 0.084, down 11.5% over the past seven days, and still falling over the past 24 hours. You might think you’re getting a bargain. To me, it looks more like catching a falling knife.
Some people will say, “Trading volume is picking up—the big move is coming.” I’ve heard that too many times. Every time prices plunge, people say, “Heavy volume means we’ve hit the bottom.” Every time they surge, people say, “Heavy volume confirms the breakout.” And what happens? High volume only tells you that people are trading. Who’s trading, and in which direction—that’s what matters. HBAR is currently caught between 0.079 and 0.091. Whether it can hold support will determine if it’s forming a bottom or continuing to search for one.
But I don’t want to talk about technicals today. I want to talk about something more concrete:
What is actually happening with the HBAR ecosystem?
What I mean is, an 85% drop in the token price isn’t simply a matter of it going from $1 to 10 cents. It means everyone in the ecosystem is reassessing things: the project team, developers, token holders, and even those who got in for the staking rewards. When a token falls 85% from its peak, it doesn’t mean the market has “undervalued” it. It means the very foundations of trust in the ecosystem have been called into question.
Are the people who were touting the high staking yields back then still staking? Are the staking pools still healthy? Are the tokens allocated to the development team still enough to keep the project running?
I’m not saying the HBAR ecosystem is already dead. I’m saying the 85% price drop itself is a signal—not that “it’s time for a rebound,” but that “a lot of people in this ecosystem have already voted with their feet.”
Whether it can recover depends not on how far it has fallen, but on whether those who left will come back and what will attract new people. I don’t know the answer either, but those focused on buying the dip based on price alone will probably end up buying halfway down.
What’s your mindset right now? Are you still willing to catch it?
A lot of people see HBAR down 85% from its peak and their first thought is, “It’s so cheap now—time to buy, right?”
I used to think that way back in 2017. A big drop isn’t a reason to buy; it just means the price it was trading at before wasn’t justified in the first place. HBAR is now at 0.084, down 11.5% over the past seven days, and still falling over the past 24 hours. You might think you’re getting a bargain. To me, it looks more like catching a falling knife.
Some people will say, “Trading volume is picking up—the big move is coming.” I’ve heard that too many times. Every time prices plunge, people say, “Heavy volume means we’ve hit the bottom.” Every time they surge, people say, “Heavy volume confirms the breakout.” And what happens? High volume only tells you that people are trading. Who’s trading, and in which direction—that’s what matters. HBAR is currently caught between 0.079 and 0.091. Whether it can hold support will determine if it’s forming a bottom or continuing to search for one.
But I don’t want to talk about technicals today. I want to talk about something more concrete:
What is actually happening with the HBAR ecosystem?
What I mean is, an 85% drop in the token price isn’t simply a matter of it going from $1 to 10 cents. It means everyone in the ecosystem is reassessing things: the project team, developers, token holders, and even those who got in for the staking rewards. When a token falls 85% from its peak, it doesn’t mean the market has “undervalued” it. It means the very foundations of trust in the ecosystem have been called into question.
Are the people who were touting the high staking yields back then still staking? Are the staking pools still healthy? Are the tokens allocated to the development team still enough to keep the project running?
I’m not saying the HBAR ecosystem is already dead. I’m saying the 85% price drop itself is a signal—not that “it’s time for a rebound,” but that “a lot of people in this ecosystem have already voted with their feet.”
Whether it can recover depends not on how far it has fallen, but on whether those who left will come back and what will attract new people. I don’t know the answer either, but those focused on buying the dip based on price alone will probably end up buying halfway down.
What’s your mindset right now? Are you still willing to catch it?