Trump posts a long message, and $BTC climbs back above 82,000—but don’t chase this rally just yet
Bottom line first: This is a news-driven rebound. Anything below 83,000 doesn’t count as a reversal.
What happened (the numbers):
1️⃣ On 10/18, Trump posted a long message on Truth Social saying he was mediating Russia-Ukraine peace talks and that “great progress has been made in the negotiations,” while also criticizing Zelenskyy for not wanting a ceasefire.
2️⃣ On 10/16, he signed an executive order exempting some of the new Russia sanctions proposed by Senator Graham. A U.S.-Russia diesel deal was approved: 2.3 million barrels to be supplied this month, rising to around 7.6 million barrels per month thereafter.
3️⃣ Oil prices pulled back: Brent fell $1.43 to $108.43 (-1.3%), while WTI fell $0.53 to $100.88.
4️⃣ Crypto markets followed suit: $BTC opened at 81,973 → hit a high of 82,817 → now at 82,516 (+0.66%); the Fear & Greed Index is at 50, neutral.
5️⃣ Putin proposed a trilateral meeting with Trump and Xi Jinping in Shenzhen during APEC (according to foreign media reports; the U.S. has not formally accepted).
My take:
This is still a “news market,” not a “capital market.” PhyrexNi’s on-chain data shows that active buying last week was down another 3.1% from the week before, while selling still exceeded buying by $520 million—the sellers haven’t capitulated at all. BlackRock’s Q3 digital asset products saw $7.9 billion in net inflows (5.9% of all iShares inflows). Capital is flowing back in, but it’s still below the same period last year.
As I said in yesterday’s 12:00 post: getting above 83,000–85,000 would be the reversal signal. Today’s high was 82,817, so it still hasn’t cleared that level. My conclusion hasn’t changed: chasing above 82,000 is just handing fuel to the liquidation engine. Scaling in between 76,000 and 80,000 is the more comfortable zone.
Bottom line first: This is a news-driven rebound. Anything below 83,000 doesn’t count as a reversal.
What happened (the numbers):
1️⃣ On 10/18, Trump posted a long message on Truth Social saying he was mediating Russia-Ukraine peace talks and that “great progress has been made in the negotiations,” while also criticizing Zelenskyy for not wanting a ceasefire.
2️⃣ On 10/16, he signed an executive order exempting some of the new Russia sanctions proposed by Senator Graham. A U.S.-Russia diesel deal was approved: 2.3 million barrels to be supplied this month, rising to around 7.6 million barrels per month thereafter.
3️⃣ Oil prices pulled back: Brent fell $1.43 to $108.43 (-1.3%), while WTI fell $0.53 to $100.88.
4️⃣ Crypto markets followed suit: $BTC opened at 81,973 → hit a high of 82,817 → now at 82,516 (+0.66%); the Fear & Greed Index is at 50, neutral.
5️⃣ Putin proposed a trilateral meeting with Trump and Xi Jinping in Shenzhen during APEC (according to foreign media reports; the U.S. has not formally accepted).
My take:
This is still a “news market,” not a “capital market.” PhyrexNi’s on-chain data shows that active buying last week was down another 3.1% from the week before, while selling still exceeded buying by $520 million—the sellers haven’t capitulated at all. BlackRock’s Q3 digital asset products saw $7.9 billion in net inflows (5.9% of all iShares inflows). Capital is flowing back in, but it’s still below the same period last year.
As I said in yesterday’s 12:00 post: getting above 83,000–85,000 would be the reversal signal. Today’s high was 82,817, so it still hasn’t cleared that level. My conclusion hasn’t changed: chasing above 82,000 is just handing fuel to the liquidation engine. Scaling in between 76,000 and 80,000 is the more comfortable zone.