I woke up this morning to oil prices taking a dive.

News came out about the Strait of Hormuz. WTI fell below $99, while Brent dropped nearly 1%. Just the day before, both were pushing toward $110. Gold and silver climbed in tandem as money seeking safety took a different route.

This week’s calendar is packed, too: U.S. housing starts on the 20th, initial jobless claims on the 22nd, and the flash PMIs and final University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading on the 23rd. We’ll have a better idea of how long the oil-price mood can hold once those numbers come out.

$BTC, meanwhile, barely moved. It’s hovering above $80,000, after briefly dipping to $80,694 intraday before recovering. In the past, when this kind of geopolitical news hit, it was usually the first to give way.

My take: this doesn’t look like crypto has gotten stronger so much as weekend order books are thin, and the news hasn’t been fully priced in yet. The real reaction will come during the first stretch after the U.S. stock market opens tonight.

Do you think this pullback in oil prices can hold through tonight?