$BTC This morning’s move didn’t happen on its own—it was pulled up by perpetuals on chip stocks. Once you see that, the playbook is simple.
Gate BTC perpetuals are around 82,360, up 1.1% over 24 hours. Today’s high of 82,447.8 was hit at 8 a.m.; the low of 80,637.9 was swept at 4 a.m., even lower than yesterday’s 80,740 low at 5 a.m. Funding is +0.0067%/8h, basically neutral.
The timeline is clear:
At 3–4 a.m., two candles totaling about 420 million U pushed the price down to 80,637.9, liquidating the longs below first;
At 5 a.m., SOXL perpetuals started moving. Volume was about 7.69 million U at 6 a.m. and 11.67 million U at 8 a.m., pushing it from 88.5 all the way to 98.68. MU perpetuals also recovered to 893.88;
BTC followed: at 6 a.m., about 385 million U pushed it from 81,184 to 81,785. Open interest fell from 4.147 billion U to 4.060 billion U in the same hour. Price up, open interest down—that’s shorts closing;
At 7 a.m., open interest climbed back to 4.154 billion U, and price moved above 82,000. New money was chasing the move.
The most interesting part is the account data: the long/short account ratio fell from 1.80 at 5 a.m. to 1.63 now. During these three hours of gains, more accounts were actually opening shorts. There are still traders betting against the move, so the rally may not have run out of fuel.
My playbook:
1. If price pulls back to 82,100–82,265 (yesterday’s 5 p.m. high) on lower volume and holds, go long; exit if it falls back below 81,950. First target: 82,888, the high of the 4-hour candle from the afternoon of 10-16, where the subsequent decline began.
2. If it breaks above 82,450 on strong volume, don’t chase the first candle. Wait for a pullback that holds 82,265, then enter.
3. If it falls back below 81,650 (today’s 7 a.m. low), that would suggest chip stocks only gave it a brief lift, along with short covering. Close all longs and watch 81,200; no need to flip short right away.
What if I’m wrong? The stop for setup one is 81,950. If it gets hit, accept the loss—don’t hold on or add to the position. Also, chip stocks are the engine behind this move. If their perpetuals give back gains before the U.S. stock market opens, reduce BTC longs by half as well.
Looking back: Yesterday afternoon, for $BR , I said that a break below 0.41 could take it to 0.37, while reclaiming 0.43 would make it worth taking another shot. It did break below 0.41 at 16:00, but only fell to 0.3935, never reaching 0.37. It reclaimed 0.43 between 23:00 and midnight, then rallied all the way to 0.545. Following the second plan was the right call. But at 6 a.m., a candle with about 650,000 U in volume pulled back from 0.545 to 0.473; it’s now around 0.46. If you didn’t scale out above 0.53, you gave back most of the profit. The problem with that trade was that I only wrote down the entry and not the exit, so today I’ve included both targets and exit levels.
This is only a short-term scenario, not a recommendation.
Gate BTC perpetuals are around 82,360, up 1.1% over 24 hours. Today’s high of 82,447.8 was hit at 8 a.m.; the low of 80,637.9 was swept at 4 a.m., even lower than yesterday’s 80,740 low at 5 a.m. Funding is +0.0067%/8h, basically neutral.
The timeline is clear:
At 3–4 a.m., two candles totaling about 420 million U pushed the price down to 80,637.9, liquidating the longs below first;
At 5 a.m., SOXL perpetuals started moving. Volume was about 7.69 million U at 6 a.m. and 11.67 million U at 8 a.m., pushing it from 88.5 all the way to 98.68. MU perpetuals also recovered to 893.88;
BTC followed: at 6 a.m., about 385 million U pushed it from 81,184 to 81,785. Open interest fell from 4.147 billion U to 4.060 billion U in the same hour. Price up, open interest down—that’s shorts closing;
At 7 a.m., open interest climbed back to 4.154 billion U, and price moved above 82,000. New money was chasing the move.
The most interesting part is the account data: the long/short account ratio fell from 1.80 at 5 a.m. to 1.63 now. During these three hours of gains, more accounts were actually opening shorts. There are still traders betting against the move, so the rally may not have run out of fuel.
My playbook:
1. If price pulls back to 82,100–82,265 (yesterday’s 5 p.m. high) on lower volume and holds, go long; exit if it falls back below 81,950. First target: 82,888, the high of the 4-hour candle from the afternoon of 10-16, where the subsequent decline began.
2. If it breaks above 82,450 on strong volume, don’t chase the first candle. Wait for a pullback that holds 82,265, then enter.
3. If it falls back below 81,650 (today’s 7 a.m. low), that would suggest chip stocks only gave it a brief lift, along with short covering. Close all longs and watch 81,200; no need to flip short right away.
What if I’m wrong? The stop for setup one is 81,950. If it gets hit, accept the loss—don’t hold on or add to the position. Also, chip stocks are the engine behind this move. If their perpetuals give back gains before the U.S. stock market opens, reduce BTC longs by half as well.
Looking back: Yesterday afternoon, for $BR , I said that a break below 0.41 could take it to 0.37, while reclaiming 0.43 would make it worth taking another shot. It did break below 0.41 at 16:00, but only fell to 0.3935, never reaching 0.37. It reclaimed 0.43 between 23:00 and midnight, then rallied all the way to 0.545. Following the second plan was the right call. But at 6 a.m., a candle with about 650,000 U in volume pulled back from 0.545 to 0.473; it’s now around 0.46. If you didn’t scale out above 0.53, you gave back most of the profit. The problem with that trade was that I only wrote down the entry and not the exit, so today I’ve included both targets and exit levels.
This is only a short-term scenario, not a recommendation.