The company that briefly made Ellison the world’s richest person has lost 61% of its market value in a year. $ORCL It fell another 4.64% last Friday—does Wall Street feel the pain this time, too?
Oracle closed at $128.23 last Friday, down 4.64%, bringing its weekly loss to 9.3%. Founder Ellison lost about $15.3 billion on paper in a week. Last September, when cloud contracts surged, the stock hit an all-time high of $328.33. It has now shed nearly 60%.
Why the drop? Three reasons:
1. Its credit rating was cut to BBB-, the lowest investment-grade rating. The market thinks it’s betting the farm by borrowing heavily to fund AI.
2. Project Jupiter: Oracle is spending $165 billion to build an AI data center in the New Mexico desert, but OpenAI’s money won’t arrive until 2027. Until then, it’s all funded with debt.
3. CoreWeave bond yields have hit 15%, spreading debt jitters across AI infrastructure. Companies burning cash to expand are all getting punished, with Oracle taking the biggest hit.
The chart says it all:
- Resistance: $133.80 (last Friday’s high, the upper edge of the gap)
- Support: $127.36 (last Friday’s low)
- If support breaks, the next level to watch is the 52-week low of $114.50
Scenarios:
A. After Meta and Tesla report earnings this Wednesday, talk of AI capital spending keeps gaining traction, and the October 28 Project Jupiter update offers no meaningful good news → the stock keeps bottoming out and heads toward $114.50.
B. It rebounds to fill the gap and holds above $133.80 → this sell-off is over for now; first target is $141.40 (where it was early last week).
My take: Bearish in the short term. In a high-interest-rate environment, nobody has the patience to wait around for a cash-burning business with negative free cash flow. My conditions for admitting I’m wrong are simple: if it closes and holds above $133.80, I’ll take back my bearish call.
⚠️Just my rambling; this is not investment advice.
#Oracle #美股 #AI
Oracle closed at $128.23 last Friday, down 4.64%, bringing its weekly loss to 9.3%. Founder Ellison lost about $15.3 billion on paper in a week. Last September, when cloud contracts surged, the stock hit an all-time high of $328.33. It has now shed nearly 60%.
Why the drop? Three reasons:
1. Its credit rating was cut to BBB-, the lowest investment-grade rating. The market thinks it’s betting the farm by borrowing heavily to fund AI.
2. Project Jupiter: Oracle is spending $165 billion to build an AI data center in the New Mexico desert, but OpenAI’s money won’t arrive until 2027. Until then, it’s all funded with debt.
3. CoreWeave bond yields have hit 15%, spreading debt jitters across AI infrastructure. Companies burning cash to expand are all getting punished, with Oracle taking the biggest hit.
The chart says it all:
- Resistance: $133.80 (last Friday’s high, the upper edge of the gap)
- Support: $127.36 (last Friday’s low)
- If support breaks, the next level to watch is the 52-week low of $114.50
Scenarios:
A. After Meta and Tesla report earnings this Wednesday, talk of AI capital spending keeps gaining traction, and the October 28 Project Jupiter update offers no meaningful good news → the stock keeps bottoming out and heads toward $114.50.
B. It rebounds to fill the gap and holds above $133.80 → this sell-off is over for now; first target is $141.40 (where it was early last week).
My take: Bearish in the short term. In a high-interest-rate environment, nobody has the patience to wait around for a cash-burning business with negative free cash flow. My conditions for admitting I’m wrong are simple: if it closes and holds above $133.80, I’ll take back my bearish call.
⚠️Just my rambling; this is not investment advice.
#Oracle #美股 #AI