Bitcoin’s weakness in October now has a quantitative explanation. Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Research, used the “institutional absorption relative to long-term holder distribution” metric to estimate net spot ETF inflows plus net additions to corporate treasuries, minus BTC reactivated after more than five years of dormancy. As of October 18, the cumulative net figure for the year was about -127,300 BTC (BlockBeats, October 19).
By component, cumulative net inflows into U.S. spot BTC ETFs for the year only turned positive in September and currently stand at just around +$355 million, with a small net outflow so far in October. Decrypt reported that ETFs saw nearly $1 billion in outflows over two weeks. Corporate treasury accumulation also weakened over the same period, while long-term holder distribution overall exceeded institutional absorption.
Personal view: When the supply-demand structure is weak, prices are more sensitive to incremental buying. Binance snapshot at 06:50 on October 19: BTC was $81,802.73 (+0.473%), with a 24-hour range of $80,684.36–$82,295.47. A bullish trigger would be a 4-hour close above $82,300, followed by a retest that holds above $81,400, with targets at $83,300 and $84,150 and a stop at $80,700. If it breaks below $80,700 and fails to reclaim it on a rebound, watch $79,800 and $78,000, with a stop at $82,300.
Institutional buyers can’t absorb the selling—are you waiting or getting out?
$BTC
The above does not constitute investment advice